Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by N Bohl on August 16, 2013 at 5:47am

Josie - This might work -

https://www.paoilandgasreporting.state.pa.us/publicreports/Modules/...

I think you have to agree to the terms and on the next page on the left you can select either "by county" or "by operator" under Production Reports - on right side then click on county and type in Tioga - then go below and select the dates you would like to look at and you can either download them or view them on the page.

Permalink Reply by Ann Ticopa on August 16, 2013 at 5:48am

There is a summary by operator/municipality here:
http://afsetc.com/shale/

Appears that the operators are mostly maintaining production levels.

Permalink Reply by paleface on August 16, 2013 at 10:41am

 Shell has there wells choked back they don't want to produce at the current price,they loose money and so do you.

Permalink Reply by N Bohl on August 16, 2013 at 12:57pm

Looking at the numbers the past 1.5 years I have wondered if Swepi does hold back some. The depletion curves seem off. I noticed also that with other companies, some in other counties, the initial production is sky high and then it drops off more, sometimes a lot more. I thought choking back dry gas wells was harder or there was a risk of losing pressure? If anyone has any thoughts about this I would be interested.  

Permalink Reply by paleface on August 16, 2013 at 1:41pm

 There not shut down, just choked back to 25-50% of out put,maybe Brian Powers could give us a professional  explanation if he is on the forum.

Permalink Reply by Ann Ticopa on August 16, 2013 at 3:04pm

N Bohl: I've also wondered how long wells could be shut in.  There is a group of ERI wells that sat, fracked, for three years - until they finally went into production the end of last year.  I have read that frack fissures do slowly close, but no numbers (rate, etc.). 

Permalink Reply by Ann Ticopa on August 16, 2013 at 2:37pm

Paleface: I'm just the messenger.  But I don't think one can assume that all SWEPI wells are throttled back.  Or that the days of production is an accurate number.  (When SWEPI and Talisman divided up the ERI wells, some total days of production added up to more days than there were in the period.) 

Some of the gas being sold now is probably at least in part to meet pipeline commitments.  But it's not necessarily being sold "at a loss".  It's being sold at a (profitable) contract price.

Permalink Reply by paleface on August 16, 2013 at 4:36pm

 Brian Powers who was a drilling engineer for BP was asked the same question if letting a drilled fracked well sit than put into production at a later date if that would hinder its proformance,he said as long as the well has good pressure it should clean out,but if the well had low pressure from the start it will effect its proformance.Those early ERI wells would probably be in the low pressure range from the start.

Permalink Reply by scott brion on August 17, 2013 at 5:03am

N-Bohl

I have spent some time reviewing the latest and past production data for wells in the northern PA and a few thoughts come immediately to mind.

• First Northern PA is very prolific.  Of the top 500 PA producing wells, 424 are located in northern PA.  In total I count 2,416 producing northern wells and the average well has produced 1.5 BCF of gas over 17 months of production.  All things considered this is an impressive figure that suggest development in the region is overall profitable and should continue to grow despite producing only dry gas. 
• Second the wells in certain areas (parts of Susquehanna, Bradford, Lycoming & Wyoming) are extraordinary while the wells in other including Tioga county are marginal to uneconomic.  
• Tioga county has 452 wells and only 30 are in the top 500.
• Tioga county average production is less than 1.1 BCF and average time in production exceeds 20 month.   A simple way to think about it is that the average of Tioga county well production is 25% less than the average of northern wells  and Tioga wells average days of production is 15% more than the northern county average.  Less gas over a longer time makes the wells less profitable.
• This is supported by the small number of new wells in Tioga county in 2013 compared to Bradford, Lycoming and Susquehanna counties.
• Lastly there are a some good wells in Tioga county, just not many relative to the number of total wells.  The good wells seem to be spread out in a few better areas.   When you look at wells by township and operator the best wells seem to be operated by Seneca and Talisman around Blossburg and Covington.  Shell wells are a pretty mixed bag relative to other operators.

Permalink Reply by N Bohl on August 17, 2013 at 7:38am

Scott and Ann -

Thank you for your well articulated impressions. I wish I had something to add but most of what I either think or know has already been posted or talked about. For the most part I have paid the most attention to Charleston Twp. and have followed the events there since 2001, maybe a little earlier. I do read about all of the PA counties but Tioga is the most interesting to me personally. As far as I can tell Swepi is forward looking in it's actions and have been less aggressive perhaps because they do not need to impress in a shorter time-frame and maybe because they are not in financial dire straights. Sites like the Sampson unit are among the earliest ones and I believe was started by East Resources - I may be wrong but I think it was one of the sites they developed to demonstrate that the area could be productive. That unit seems to have been producing consistently. Newer units such as the Wilson has done quite well. From what folks have said online Swepi is investigating possible production of the lower depths -maybe at the the Neal site? The Swepi wells do seem to be a mixed bag and it looks like the overall, and hopefully clearer, picture will take a few years to develop. I am still amazed at the production difference between sites. If I come across any legitimate and reliable news I will post it. A lot of what I have heard over the years is strictly rumor and even when somewhat accurate has come to little - I think because the industry itself is unpredictable. The one thing I am fairly certain of is that there is more than one pipeline in some of the gathering lines coming from units, I am unsure what the reasoning may be for that. I am curious to see how long they work on the Neal site. Thanks again!

Permalink Reply by N Bohl on August 17, 2013 at 12:19pm

This was a picture of a line being put in leading from a single unit going North. It looked like it had four lines but a future unit might hook up to it. I am unsure. I wish I took better note of the size the pipes. Ann mentioned the use of fiber optics cable as well as water.

Permalink Reply by scott brion on August 17, 2013 at 9:19am

For what its worth, I fear that you might be giving Shell more credit than they have earned.  Overall, their operations in Tioga and neighboring counties have not (in my opinion) been impressive in any respect.  I would actually categorize their development as very aggressive given the large number of wells and very poor results they have experienced.   SWEPI has 243 wells with production in Tioga county that average only 800 MCF with nearly 18 months in average production.   The only operator with worse Tioga county results is Ultra (their partner.)   I also follow the investor conference calls and Shell has regularly been incurring the highest total well costs of any operator.

Interesting fact (see table below) if you omit all Shell wells Tioga county well average look a whole lot better.

	# wells	Avg Well MCF	Avg  days producing
Tioga County	452	1,086,598	618
SWEPI	139	799,586	543
All Others	213	1,408,645	703

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