Chesapeakes stronghold in ohio

With the latest developments in the sweet spot being further south, will this affect number of wells drilled in Carroll, columbiana, stark counties, and will it affect renewals on leasing for folks who have not been drilled on yet?

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015334grltd9mPermalink Reply by 015334grltd9m on September 5, 2013 at 2:14pm

For Pete's sake, quit already with "it's all in the south and nothing up in the north." 

They started first down south, give them time up here and it all will be similar.

Permalink Reply by mark ondrusek on September 6, 2013 at 12:11am

I agree 100% ron!

Permalink Reply by Armstrong Land on September 6, 2013 at 12:29am

Hunter - who do you realistically can answer this question for you?  Do you believe there to be a GMS forum member who knows the future of the collective strategy of every company as it relates to development of Ohio's unconventional assets?

Permalink Reply by Chris on September 6, 2013 at 1:05am
I'm sure there are a few armchair experts on here that claim to know, or a least will quote a few online articles
0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on September 6, 2013 at 3:59am

You don't need insider information to make an educated guess as to what a company will next do. CHK has a long history in shale plays and you can simply watch what they've done before and extrapolate what they'll do next.  

They need to drill.  A lot.  That is not up for debate.  So they'll drill the strongest prospects they have first.  They'll then move on to derisking the rest of their position and based on results will add rigs to the areas of most promise.  They'll also follow the pipeline and invest their capex where they can get cash flow sooner rather than later.  Pretty easy formula to follow.

Permalink Reply by Kathleen on September 6, 2013 at 5:11am
Hi Marcus,

One thing that sticks in my mind is their commitment to Total.
I've noticed a pattern of the South move too, which I think is the drillers seeing what's there now, but doesn't CHK have to drill these wells for Total regardless of what is found down south?
I know Total is listed on a bunch of columbiana leases.

Hunter1,
Here's my arm chair opinion which means nothing :0),
If the move south holds this may not be bad news for people releasing with CHK.
Right now they have large blocks held and some of these leases will come up for renewal in 2-3 years or so. If CHK goes more South and chooses not to re-lease at the higher numbers, competition could move in offering higher then CHK would.
If CHK did start drilling here real heavy again in the near future, would they still let some of these re-leases lapse and try to come in lower hoping mineral owners will just cash any check they receive and hope no one else moves in real fast?
There's so many ways to look at this and only time will tell.
I did see they permitted 3 wells for columbiana county last week when a lot of the summer it seemed like one was the norm.
IMO Carroll is still hot. I took a ride down rt 39 last weekend and it was an education in drilling. They were everywhere and a lot of the white boards had a bunch of permits on them. Good for them!
0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on September 6, 2013 at 5:27am

The JV with Total compels them to drill X number of wells during a given amount of time.  That's not even the real issue for them, though.  The real issue is that they spent a lot of money acquiring their lease position and they need to get production roaring so they can start to get cash flow.

Permalink Reply by Kathleen on September 6, 2013 at 5:32am
I agree and I hope they do.
To stay on Total for a minute, if they weren't finding what they wanted here, could they just slide the drilling commitment with Total to different leases?
I also wonder did the board change up slow them down a bit and now they are ready to go. Maybe I'm way off and something like that would never slow a co., that large down.
0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on September 6, 2013 at 5:40am

The Total JV encompasses an area of land that was previously agreed upon.  Anything outside that JV agreement is free territory for CHK to do with what it wants.  But they want to drill that JV acreage because Total is footing 75% of the cost of drilling.  

Permalink Reply by CARROLLCOUNTYACE on September 6, 2013 at 7:37am

Hi Kathleen I have been told a pipeline for the Marsha and Burgett pads will be completed around the 15 of this month. Was told by CHK, they said some wait a year or more for the pipelines.  What do you see when you go out does it seem like the pipelines are being completed?

Permalink Reply by Hunter 1 on September 6, 2013 at 9:01am
Armstrong,

Just asking a question, for discussion sake, easy Francis !
Permalink Reply by Kathleen on September 6, 2013 at 5:36am
The reason I like this topic is so many in the area are thinking CHK is gone and they will never see a dime. I keep telling them, that's not true, but the activity is proving me wrong right now.
We were hopping here for a year and now I'm just starting to see white trucks again. For 6 months or so I wasn't seeing many at all and some days, none. I drive on average (cringe) 80-100 miles through the county a day so I really noticed the change.

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