Stacked Gas In Place Butler County

I have excerpted pdf files from the original Range 10/30/13 presentation using the "print to PDF" selection under the Print command and "printing" the individual pages.

I have included the three zones - Marcellus, Utica, and Upper Devonian (Burkett) and a map of Butler County.

I thought that this would be of interest to the Butler County participants here.

If you want to have all of the files open at the same time, right click the pdf files and save them all together.  Then, open them all from that location.

I attached two images so that you can see where I'm going.  Use the jpg files for higher resolution.

Phil

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Permalink Reply by Philip Thackray on December 3, 2013 at 12:08pm

And the total GIP:

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Permalink Reply by cheliped on December 3, 2013 at 12:39pm

So what does that mean in terms of value for Butler County?  Is 200 -300 BCF a lot?

Permalink Reply by Trapper on December 3, 2013 at 1:26pm

@$4.00mcf gas price 1 cubic foot of gas is worth .004 dollars

200 Billion cubic feet of gas is worth 800 MILLION DOLLARS

@$4.00mcf , every billion cubic feet of gas is worth 4 million dollars.

 

Permalink Reply by Trapper on December 3, 2013 at 1:39pm

What is the best UNBIASED estimate of the actual % of this gas that is recoverable with current state of the art technology? What about 10 years from now?

Permalink Reply by Philip Thackray on December 3, 2013 at 2:34pm

 

Hi everybody!

I meant to post this in the Pennsylvania Butler County Discussion but somehow it ended up here.

In the investor presentation it was suggested that between 25% and 40% of this was recoverable.  However, compared to Ranges EURs this looks conservative (or the EURs are exaggerated).

Anyway I think these numbers at 30% recovery are conservative.

Phil

Permalink Reply by Trapper on December 3, 2013 at 3:05pm

Thanks Philip!

Glad you did post in General by mistake!

Myself being right at the 200Billion mark , I find these numbers intriguing to say the least. :-)

Hmm....4.00 gas......30% of 800 million.......1080 acres/sq.mile........15% royalty.......

And this is dry gas only? Add some liquids to the mix and......I could live well off of that!

Then there's the possibility (probability?) of more plays like the Trenton and Loysburg Black River and who knows what else.........I know , I am probably getting a little too excited. But even the dry gas numbers involving these three plays would be great!

Permalink Reply by Todd on December 3, 2013 at 5:55pm
Trapper,
There's 640 acres per square mile! That'll help your mathematics in a positive way! :)
Permalink Reply by Trapper on December 4, 2013 at 12:48am
OOPS!
Thanks Todd. Double the dose!
Permalink Reply by Philip Thackray on December 4, 2013 at 1:16am

 

TODD posted earlier about this Range report.  See discussion here:

http://gomarcellusshale.com/forum/topics/gas-in-place-gip-analysis-...

I was trying to put my discussion in the PA Butler County Discussions area but somehow ended up in the General Discussion area.

In mid-November, Range issued another Corporate Presentation with the same maps that I have posted here but they are more readable due to a change in the method of highlighting their lease-hold areas.

Phil

Permalink Reply by Todd on December 4, 2013 at 6:47am
Thanks Phil,
YES - I'm all over their presentations and keeping up with them. Their acreage is over 90% HBP so now they can show everyone the money! :)
Permalink Reply by Philip Thackray on December 4, 2013 at 1:48am

On -11.jpg there is a note "Condensate and NGLs are in gaseous form in the reservoir".  In the dry gas areas the calculation of total extractable dollars/acre in the ground is simple:

($/Mcf x GIP (Bcf)/1000 x extraction %)/640acres = $/acre

In the wet gas areas (from Range and Rex Corporate Presentations) assuming Ethane recovery (best scenario and not likely for some time) -

For Range, multiply the dry gas number by about 1.8.

For Rex, multiply the dry gas number by about 1.5.

(Range is in a better area both for volume and wet $s added).

A landowner would have to multiply the final “extractable $s”/acre by their acreage and then by their royalty percent.  Multiply again by about 0.82 if your operator is deducting the costs of transport, processing compression etc.

Recall that this calculation is total over time and does not take into account the time value of money flows.

Phil

Permalink Reply by Todd on December 4, 2013 at 7:02am
Good stuff Phil -
If a landowner is not yet in a unit, it makes it more difficult to calculate. Unit size can make a big difference as well in the short term.
I'm also glad you posted in general discussions as we are connected...
My acreage is in Hancock County, WV about 1 mi west of southern Beaver County - Hanover TWP. My property is on the same Utica dry gas trend as SE Jefferson County, Ohio and SW Butler County at about 1100 BTU. The Upper Devonian is similar to SW Butler's GIP also.

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