Utica decline curves..............data

Good evening Shalers,

Is there fresh data & commentary regarding utica decline rates from Q4?

Please provide links.

Ty,
Tim

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Permalink Reply by The Hiker on March 7, 2014 at 2:41pm

Yes, I am curious also.  Does anyone know when Ohio's Q4 production numbers will be published?

Mike MurphyPermalink Reply by Mike Murphy on March 7, 2014 at 5:09pm

ODNR HAS HAD ALL THE INFO SINCE MID FEBUARY THEY SHOULD HAVE HAD IT RELEASED WITHIN A FEW WEEKS BUT FOR SOME REASON THEY DRAG THEIR FEET ......NOT A VERY EFFICIENTLY RAN DEPTMENT IN MY OPINION ''......IN TODAYS TECHNOLOGY THEY SHOULD HAVE HAD A SPREADSHEET DONE IN A DAY OR 2 OF FEB 15 .....IT ALL ON COMPUTERS ,........MAYBE THEIR PENCIL RAN OUT OF LEAD ......THE DOG ATE THEIR PAPERWORK.....I AM SURE THE OIL COMPANIES DIDN'T WAIT TIL THE LAST DAY TO SEND IN THEIR REPORTS ........I WOULD BET THE INFO WAS ALL IN ODNR'S HANDS BEFORE THE END OF JANUARY 

Permalink Reply by bo boboski on March 9, 2014 at 7:04am

Oh well, just drill another leg bout 500 ft along side it, then again,then again,or go the other direction.Dont know why a decline would be a surprise or considered a bad deal. That oil & gas isn't being made everyday, gotta keep drilling. Drill-baby-drill!

Permalink Reply by Samuel J. Orr on March 9, 2014 at 8:45am

The obvious problem is that severe decline curves in the Utica are predictive of much longer periods before the costs of drilling a well can be recovered. Decline curves that are very steep will necessarily discourage further drilling. Assuredly better fracking technology may increase initial production results, and may also hopefully lessen the decline curves that are currently being seen in most Utica wells. It appears from reading this and other threads that optimum drilling and fracking strategies are a very long ways from being figured out for the Utica. My vague understanding is that "tight" shales are technically part of the problem and that the current fracking technology has not been very good at maintaining the fractures in the shale that are necessary to recover gas from these wells in amounts over extended periods of time to make the drilling of these wells economically viable. I have minimal technical knowledge and will hope for further contributions and corrections from Utica Shale, and from Rock Man and Marcus Grayson. These three individuals all  seem knowledgeable and can certainly correct and refine this post which I admit is speculative on my part.

Permalink Reply by lance on March 13, 2014 at 11:21am

What is the bbls, Just barrels per day? 18 barrels aint that much is it?

Permalink Reply by Tim on March 9, 2014 at 2:59pm

thank you.  yes, i was looking for that kind of hard data.

i would add, its only two wells, but would be very curious of a much larger sample size, and of course compare that to decline curves in the marcellus for similar time frames.  Odd that the oil declines were close in nature, but the nat gas was vastly different.  Again, sample size would yield results that could be better extrapolated for statistically significant conclusions. 

I agree, its early, and e&p guys are still figuring out lengths/formulas, etc to maximize returns. 

not sure what that one guy's point is, but decline curves are huge for future values being paid for mineral rights.

thx for the info.

 

Permalink Reply by Billy Park Whyde on March 9, 2014 at 9:09pm

Decline will happen, but one must consider it is the well owner that to a large degree controls the output of a well. A cut back in production might be a plan for long term production, the market and infrastructure also plays a roll in production as well. 

Mike MurphyPermalink Reply by Mike Murphy on March 9, 2014 at 11:23pm

THE DECLINE IN PRODUCTION IS ALOT TO DO WITH MIDSTREAM CAPACITY .....AT THIS TIME CAPACITY IS FULL AS MORE MIDSTREAM CAPACITY IS AVAILABLE PRODUCTION COULD GO UP .....IF THERE IS NO ROOM FOR PRODUCTION THEN U GET LOWER GAS SALES AND LESS LIQUID MOVING TO THE WELL BORE  GAS IS THE VEHICLE THAT MOVES THE FLUIDS ....I AM SURE MOST WELLS ARE CHOKED WAY BACK  FROM INITIAL PRODUCTION TESTING 

Permalink Reply by Tim on March 10, 2014 at 2:42am
Is that also true of oil?

Isnt oil a matter of trucking to a refiner?
Mike MurphyPermalink Reply by Mike Murphy on March 10, 2014 at 3:35am

yes but if the refinery is at capacity they cant refine it ....there is refinery expansions going on right now at a refinery in kentucky and a refinery in canton ohio ......but i was talking about the fluids under the ground getting to the well bore as nat gas being the vehicle to move the fluids for more production also oil can be piped to refineries .....marathon has a 50 mile pipeline in the planning stag from cadiz ohio to canton .....2 pipelines are being layed from the west virginia and pennsy headed to refineries in the gulf of mexico area .......lack of infastructure has slowed production ....trains are being used too but the railroads have to be worked over ....they have not been used in alotta area like they are today for many years ........there are plans to move 50,000 train cars a year out of scio ohio ....but the plant there has reached capacity and more is being built to hand more production ......cadiz plant and kensington ohio plants are at capacity also ....but expansion is going on there too.........williams company is spending 4.5 billion in marshall county west virginia just on infastructure a true production report probably wont be seen til 2015  in my opinion ......mobley west virginia has a plant thats under expansion .....leesville ohio is getting a processing plant built to go on line first part of 2015.....there are over 130 pipeline projects going on in ohio ....and as far as trucks there is a shortage of drivers ......most oil will be trucked to a terminal then stored and placed into pipelines or train cars and sent to refineries so more huge storage tanks will need to be built ......larger or more pipelines will need layed from terminal to refineries 

Mike MurphyPermalink Reply by Mike Murphy on March 10, 2014 at 3:48am

leesville ohio plant picture taken yesterday 3/9 /2014 .....60 acre facility .....it is going to be massive 

Permalink Reply by Tim on March 10, 2014 at 1:18pm

awesome color, thanks for clearing that up.

 

and btw, Love the picture!

 

thx again,

Tim

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