Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Philip Brutz on May 28, 2014 at 6:53am

Which state, county, township are you in?

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Permalink Reply by Rich on May 28, 2014 at 7:10am

Hi Zack! Could tell us how many acres u have an what % u have?thanks Rich

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Permalink Reply by Zack Jameson on May 28, 2014 at 7:47am

I'm in Marshall County,WV. I have 50 acres in the unit@ 18% gross royalty. 

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Permalink Reply by Philip Brutz on May 28, 2014 at 7:56am

What has your decline rate been so far?

Here is a typical decline rate that might give a rough idea:

http://storage.ning.com/topology/rest/1.0/file/get/35534210?profile...

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Permalink Reply by Zack Jameson on May 28, 2014 at 11:46am

My royalty has remained the same and actually increased due to the rise in the price of natural gas.

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Permalink Reply by rmc on May 28, 2014 at 1:37pm

Noble Energy ? I have heard rumor that they have had wells actually increase in production for the first year because of the choke they use on the wells.
No not all Marcellus wells produce oil. How many barrels are the wells producing a month?

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Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on May 29, 2014 at 3:36pm

In fracing the wells, frac fluid and proppants (likely sand) are pumped into the Marcellus Shale formation in great volume.

One reason for an increase in production during the first months (or year) is 'clean-up' of the well. It can take time for the spent frac fluid, formation fluids and excess proppant to exit the well ... until such time as these exit, they can (temporarily) inhibit production.

All IMHO,

                  JS

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Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on May 29, 2014 at 3:30pm

Zack,

           I would suggest that you obtain some graph paper and make your own decline curve (one that you might compare with generic decline curves which you might obtain from various sources. 

Ignoring such variables as price/mcf and any deductions .... month-by-month, plot production versus monthly distribution.

Each and every well will have it's individual decline curve .... if you create one for your well, with time you should be able to extrapolate and come close to predicting future production (anyone who says that they can predict a future price is lying, or a fool).

JS

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Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on May 29, 2014 at 3:05pm

If you post which State, which County and which township your property is located in .... you might get the most accurate information from someone located nearby .... like all real estate; it is location, location, location.

For a 'generic' decline curve, I would suggest that you do a Google Search using the parameters: Marcellus Decline Curve. 

The decline curve of Marcellus Wells tends to be very steep (but there do seem to be exceptions). Unless you have information to the contrary, assume that you will have a steep decline curve ... do not spend it as though it will continue in such a generous fashion (you might be lucky, and I am wrong).

 

RE: "do all Marcellus wells produce oil?"

No, but many wish that they did.

In the Dry gas areas ... it is just that dry gas (methane).

In the Wet gas areas, you can expect a mix of Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids ... and if you are lucky you will also get condensate  ... and if you are very lucky you will also get oil.

If you are getting oil from a Marcellus well in any meaningful quantities, you are truly blessed; and I am truly jealous.

I have just edited my reply ... for some reason, I did not see the earlier replies ... so some of the above is redundant to earlier. JS

All IMHO,

                  JS

 

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