Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Tim Tarr on April 1, 2014 at 8:11pm

I think that was only time but I don't follow them closely. CNX (Consol) and CVX (Chevron) both are big to the South of Me in Greene County and three SW Washington County Townships (Coal country).

I think RRC has everything in 10+ miles of me, more to the North. They have been very active leasing all the small Parcels in the last few months in my Township. In 2010 they acquired (flipped) all the CHK leases along with East Resources (now SWEPI) deep rights. Now we know why! Not just Marcellus but 2, probably 3 Devonian shale plays (pays). I'm pretty sure they have known since 2009.

I'll bet core samples taken 2 miles north and 10+ miles S.E. of Me. When first Marcellus wells drilled this far south in 2008. If I recall correctly word was Marcellus too thin this far South and East. Ha  That first "test" well 2 miles North still has good numbers for an "old" Shale well.

Now drilling first Utica/Point Pleasant "test" well ~ 7 miles West. Taking lots of time on this one. 6 months from start to production "test". I think in a few years this will be big along with Black River just below. I'm crazy but I don't think it will be only "dry" gas. I'll be very happy with dry but I don't think it'll be just Dry.

Now let's talk Upper Devonian.

I think I finally figured out where that oil came from in those old shallow wells in the Venango Sandstone. Rhinestreet is the source rock. If that is true there is ~3000 feet of potential reservoir rock (sandstone) below those old wells. Anyone want to bet on this is known but being kept quiet until all the leases are "locked" in.

What is the Frac Barrier for the Rhinestreet? Is it Oswayo? Would like an answer to that.

Is that too much? LOL 

Permalink Reply by Todd on April 2, 2014 at 6:17am

Tim,
Yes - there were two huge land swaps in 2010 and 2011 between Range and CHK so that each would end up with their respective positions in PA and WV. I signed with Fortuna in 2007 then Range bought it 6 months later then CHK acquired it in 2011.
Where to land the Rhinestreet Shale laterals is the question. As you know, it is thick. I'm not sure where the best natural frac barrier is located for the Rhinestreet - is the Oswayo a limestone formation?

Upper Devonian wise, I'm most excited about the interdigitated Burket and Marcellus wells being drilled by CONSOL at the airport and by Rex in Butler County. This interdigitation/zipper interaction appears to really increase production.

Todd

Permalink Reply by Todd on June 12, 2014 at 11:40am

Consol 2014 Analyst Day June 12, 2014
Loaded with information.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjM4OTA2...

Permalink Reply by Tim Tarr on June 12, 2014 at 3:12pm

Man oh man. Do I love those maps.
RRC won't like me seeing those. Just
gave me much much more confidence in my non-Marcellus shales. Oh and coal bed methane to boot.

Todd, you da Man
Thanks for posting that.

Permalink Reply by Todd on June 12, 2014 at 3:38pm

Tim,

Yeah - You're in the bull's eye!  From looking at the maps, it's looking like most of Beaver County definitely has stacked play potential as well being Utica, Marcellus and Upper Devonian in that order of productive potential.

https://www.webcaster4.com/Webcast/ListenPage?companyId=359&web...

Pretty awesome to get the highlighted color from Consol's presenters as well with the audio to go along with the long presentation.

Thanks Tim!  lol  :-)

Just heard at about 2:58 into the presentation that Consol has a contract with Shell to supply ethane and that they are confident that by the end of the year that Shell will give the go ahead!

Todd

Permalink Reply by Tim Tarr on June 13, 2014 at 11:35am

Ok did some Homework.

First look at page 86 I'm going to go in descending order so I'll jump around on page numbers. I'll also keep referring to pg 86.

  Page 93 (Other Gas Reserves and Resources) Conventional Resources. Those are probably many different strata from Pennsylvanian to Pre-Cambrian. So I'll just say I'm keeping an eye out for those UD sands and limestone formations. For Conventional and Unconventional wells. 

  Page 87 (Stacked Pay Potential) That sure looks like the Vanmeter Map (RRC) from 2012. Consol's is wider and shows WV.

http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2012/50738vanmeter/ndx_... (page22) Now have confirmation on Vanmeter's work. ;-))

  Page 82 Upper Devonian (Burkett Shale  Sweet spot) Just love one of them Sweet Spots. Where are the Rhinestreet and Middlesex Sweet Spots?? Page 86 showed 3 pay zones in Rhinestreet. Below that their showing Cashaqua Shale. In most of SW Pa there is the Rock stream than Brallier and below the West River are Penn Yan Member and Upper shale member of Harrell.  Probably splitting hairs there but one never knows. Vanmeter thought there was potential there.

  Page 28 (Marcellus Shale) Don't quite know about that one. Wonder why they used EUR rather than net pay like they did with Burkett? On pg 86 they show Hamiliton Shale Pay zone between Tully and Marcellus. I dont quite understand that either.

  Page 64 (Utica) Those EUR #'s for PA/WV look low. May have to do with Point Pleasant being absent in some of their areas. page 79 (Utica: PA/WV Dry Gas) Look at GPOR well in SE Belmont 30.2MMcf/day, MHR in SE Monroe 32.5MMcf/day CVX in Marshall 25MMcf/day.

  Page 19 showing that Triple Play.  Page 98 shows all the areas with overlap.

Now as these Utica wells get drilled and core samples taken it may get even better.

Permalink Reply by Todd on June 14, 2014 at 6:32am

Tim,

Well done concentrating on the Pay Zones for the Stacked Pay Potential on Page 86.  I'll try to address some of your concerns and add a bit as well.

Page 82 Burkett Shale Sweet Spot - that somewhat conflicts with Consol's maps from the Howard Weil presentation in March (the heading of this post), repasted here:  

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NTM3NDE4...

Page 5 - Consol Stacked Shale Plays fits exactly with the new presentation for the outline of the Burkett Shale Sweet Spot.  However, Page 14 from March shows different sweet spots with a certain sweet spot that I like a lot - being the head and eye of the lizard that it looks like.  What's more, Van Meter's Burkett Net Thickness > 200 API corresponds better with the Burkett Sweet Spot map from March.

The presenter for the E&P division for analyst day specifically pointed out verbally that they did not include all of the other Upper Devonian Shales in that sweet spot map or any other map in the analyst day presentation.  He said that they did not include the Rhinestreet, Geneseo and something else - maybe someone can listen back for me.

Yes - the Rhinestreet Shale is very thick - I'm surprised at 3 pay zones, however.  Most likely 1 or 2 pay zones at each geographic location.  But, it's possible but not probable to drill 3 zones within that shale unless you're in the bull's eye.

Hamilton Shale - According to the WVGES, the Hamilton Shale and Marcellus Shale both together reflect the total organic content of the Marcellus Shale thickness in their "Marcellus" Shale Map:

http://ims.wvgs.wvnet.edu/mar/viewer.htm

All of these maps are still preliminary for areas that have yet to see a lot of drilling activity; these maps have many extrapolations used in them.  The presenter even said that this is "the current map" that we have.  Yes, drilling and core samples will make the information most accurate and will further delineate the maps.

Thanks, Todd

 

 

Permalink Reply by Todd on June 14, 2014 at 6:57am

Now look at VanMeter's Total Upper Devonian Shale Net Thickness > 200 API.  That moves the UD fairway further north.  Those gamma ray readings are golden.  Compare that with the new midstream MLP joint venture for Consol and Noble on Page 151 of the analyst presentation.  That map and their "CONE asset overview" correspond directly with the wet gas Upper Devonian and Marcellus Shales:

"Over $400 million capital investment in gathering and processing systems"

- Rapid organic volume growth through existing systems

- Ongoing development of new systems to support E&P’s projected growth 

- Systems located on stacked pays with close proximity to processing facilities

Permalink Reply by Todd on June 14, 2014 at 8:45am

Noble Energy Announces Plans To Form Marcellus Midstream MLP:

http://investors.nobleenergyinc.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=854369

Noble May 21st presentation with a few Marcellus slides:

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-2D0WMQ/3249057631x0x756...

Permalink Reply by Tim Tarr on June 14, 2014 at 8:55am

I said I loved one of those Burket sweet spots, not that it was correct. LOL

I not sure but I think It's too thin at our location. Perhaps they're putting all those formations below Brallier and above Tully into "Burket".I would like to know where CNX is getting their data from. 

I sure would like a stratigraphic Column with thickness from my Units well(s). I'm willing to bet they took lots of core samples down to Ridgeley (Oriskany) Sandstone. Which just happens to be overlain by Huntersville Chert/Needmore Shale.

I'll just say Pg 98 was my favorite. It may get even more interesting if Utica works out in West Pa. As those wells are drilled there will be core samples taken between Marcellus and Utica. I suspect RRC has a very good idea already. They are in process of trading that Permian basin for Nora in Virginia. Which has similar geology to SW Pa.

Permalink Reply by Todd on June 14, 2014 at 9:20am

Range drilled a Burkett well at the Noss pad in SW Beaver County.  The Burkett is only 10' thick at that location based on the drilling logs!

Geosteering is a wonderful thing.

Permalink Reply by Todd on June 18, 2014 at 5:36am

See slides 23 and 25 of the Enterprise Partners presentation below:
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/80/80547/presentatio...

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