Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Deb Reynolds on May 6, 2020 at 4:17am

Trying to catch up. I only get notified about 5% of the time there's a post. 

So Seneca is NFG? 

Will they be as careful as Shell? 

glad to see someone's talking!

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on May 6, 2020 at 7:33am

NFG (Seneca) was already very active in Tioga County, but this is a bold move for a company their size. Luckily, they have great gas markets, a hedge in place and know what they're doing. So I see this acquisition as a very positive development for Tioga County, particularly the Utica core. My guess is that we'll see some new drilling on Shell acreage by the end of 2020 unless the closing gets delayed.  

Permalink Reply by GotGas on May 6, 2020 at 7:38am

Do you have any insight into a post that Paleface made earlier?

 Reply by paleface yesterday

Hopefully Senaca will do the proper maintenance and pick the production up on tioga wells.Shell just let them glog up wouldn't spend the money to keep them clean.

Permalink Reply by GotGas on May 6, 2020 at 8:04am

Most to the Seneca Wells in Tioga Co are on State lands, correct? Does Seneca or National have any history of  Landowner leases in Tioga Co?

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on May 6, 2020 at 8:05am

I think it's a mistake to assume that Shell could have gotten more gas out of any particular well and were just being inattentive. They want to make money too, and have some very smart people working for them. But it's certainly possible, as I know that they didn't optimize production from any of the shallow wells they acquired from East Resources years ago. (The current owners were very happy to discover that.) Hopefully Seneca will see if they can justify putting more attention into these wells once they close the deal, and if that's a money-maker, take advantage of it. Not all maintenance pays for itself, so nobody does everything they might to boost sales, especially when prices are low. But that may be a real source of upside for Seneca, as Paleface suggested. 

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on May 6, 2020 at 8:08am

Yes, and they acquired leases from Shell before this deal as well.

Permalink Reply by GotGas on May 10, 2020 at 8:42am

My biggest concern is that Seneca will follow the Appalachia  pricing.

 

Permalink Reply by Mr. Bluebird on May 13, 2020 at 12:47am

National Fuel/ Seneca Resources frequently publishes and investor relations report.   I have been reading them for several years and they are very valuable, honest, and accurate.    In the report they will lay out their plans for the next 12 - 24 months.     In a year or so I think we may be able to finally answer the question that was originally asked in 2013 -  "What's going on in your area??".

The most recent report includes the Shell acreage aquisition.   You can download the report here:

https://investor.nationalfuelgas.com/for-investors/ir-home/default....

On that webpage,  on the right hand side it will show "Investor Spotlight".         Then select the pdf file for "May 2020 update".     If you like maps, charts, and graphs you will find 78 pages of intrigue.

They are a very impressive company and they are well positioned to sell gas regardless of the market conditions.

Permalink Reply by Mr. Bluebird on May 13, 2020 at 12:49am

From the May 2020 Investor Presentation.

Can you find your land ?

Permalink Reply by Mr. Bluebird on May 13, 2020 at 12:50am

Seneca/NFG needs to ramp up production in July 2020 and Nov 2021 to meet contractual demands.

Permalink Reply by Mr. Bluebird on May 13, 2020 at 12:51am

Note how closely the Shell Acreage lines up with Seneca Acreage

Permalink Reply by Mr. Bluebird on May 13, 2020 at 12:55am

They can also sell a lot of gas directly to consumers and get retail pricing.       Check out the blue area where their end customers are.    

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