Not a good time for the polar vortex

Last winter the various polar vortices (or, if you prefer, vortexes) were helpful in providing support for our NG price. This is because a polar vortex during winter acts to reinforce the already-existing tendency for cold. In summer the polar vortex works against us. The upcoming cooler-than-normal weather will hit us at a time air conditioning loads should be straining generation capacity, causing (we would hope) greater use of NG-fired generation.

It's not gonna happen, at least not this coming week.  The weather is forecast, instead, to be almost "shoulder season" weather.  That's when temperatures are not too warm, not too cold, just comfortable.  It's also when you don't need much NG for heating and you don't need much NG to provide the extra electric power for all those air conditioners.  It's commonplace to experience "shoulder season" weather in the spring and fall.  In July, if we want to sell a lot of NG, we need heat-wave weather with "air you can wear" - like in Florida.

Course, things are cool everywhere right now.  Here's what's going on to our south:

Record cold at south pole

It's also very cold now in Australia:

Oz winter sets record

So with the pervasive and ongoing global cooling, we sell more NG in winter but less in summer.  How we come out overall, whether better or worse off on our sales, I'm not entirely certain.

But it seems to me we would be better off to have a more even usage of NG across the various seasons, rather than a ginormous spike of usage in winter, as happened last winter.

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Permalink Reply by David Perotto on July 13, 2014 at 2:40am

Frank,

The EIA has stated that we are still very low for NG storage in its most recent report:

Inventory build is greater than average. The net injection reported for the week ending July 4 was 93 Bcf, 21 Bcf larger than the 5-year average net injection of 72 Bcf and 13 Bcf larger than last year's net injection of 80 Bcf. Working gas inventories totaled 2,022 Bcf, 653 Bcf (24.4%) less than last year at this time, and 769 Bcf (27.6%) below the 5-year (2009-13) average.

Their forecast to the end of the season stated:

There are currently 17 more weeks in the injection season, which traditionally occurs April 1 through October 31, although, in many years, injections continue into November. EIA forecasts that the end-of-October working natural gas inventory level will be 3,431 Bcf, which, as of July 4, would require an average injection of 83 Bcf per week through the end of October. EIA's forecast for the end-of-October inventory levels are below the 5-year (2009-13) average value of 3,837 Bcf. To reach the 5-year average by October 31, average weekly injections through the end of October would need to be 107 Bcf.

Even though power burn for NG electricity generation is lower this summer, these projections show that their should continue to be upward price pressure for the remainder of 2014.

Permalink Reply by Frank Walker on July 13, 2014 at 7:57am

I certainly hope that works out for us.  What you report must be a continuing reaction to the cold last winter.  I still believe, though, that we could sell more NG if heat wave conditions would just assert themselves right now.  This is supposed to be the warmest few weeks of the year.  Instead, the weather starting about Wednesday is forecast to be downright pleasant, with temperatures at night descending into the fifties because of the polar vortex!!  That's a long way from any sort of heat wave I can remember.

Permalink Reply by bo boboski on July 13, 2014 at 7:40am

What happened to Global Warming?  Al Gore, where r u ?

Permalink Reply by Frank Walker on July 13, 2014 at 8:00am

If you had made $400 million from supposed "global warming", where would you be? 

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