Calculating future royalties

does anyone know how to figure out royalties? i went on the sites that have the royalty calculators but im not sure if they are accurate or not.

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Permalink Reply by Bullfrex on November 9, 2017 at 2:01pm

I may not be comprehending the gist of your inquiry....but here is what is generally accepted knowledge.

The royalty calculators you have seen should be accurate, but they need information that you have about the Unit you are in; the size in acreage of the Unit, the amount of your acreage included in the Unit and your royalty percentage (e.g.15%, 18%, etc.).

The next thing required is the Unit Production in 0,000 Mcf, the price the gas is sold at, whether your producer(s) will take deductions for various costs (this is dependent on your lease language....although you hear horror stories) and probably something I am forgetting.

As you can see, trying to forecast future royalties is, at best, a moving target....gas price being the most elusive.

If you are in a producing Unit and receiving royalties, anyone with a mathematical mind should be able to verify your amounts with the information mentioned above.

If you have received a Division Order, the math is typically spelled out on that document.

If you are in a non-producing Unit and are trying to forecast royalties, you might have better luck playing the state lottery. LOL It can be done, but it is an almost full time job tracking EVERYTHING going on in the area around you....then using a dartboard to find your answers.

I don't mean to be flippant here. I have experience forecasting future well production, and I can tell you it is a VERY inexact science!! Things can vary tremendously over a few miles distance between tracked well pads.

Best of luck to you!!

Permalink Reply by george kosht on November 9, 2017 at 2:44pm

thank you for the info, i am in a producing unit, in fact the well went into production in the end of august and they said i will be recieving my check at the end of november. im collecting off of 2 wells here is some info that i have.

25 acres in the one unit total unit 706 acres.

18 acres in the other unit acres in that unit is 590 acres.

the well is producing 8.4 MMcfe/d

the current price of natural gas is 3.20

my roaylties are 18%

Permalink Reply by Keith Mauck (Site Publisher) on November 10, 2017 at 5:50am

George Kosht, check out ShaleCast.com it utilizes decline curves to calculate future royalties. Begin by searching for your well(s) https://www.shalecast.com. Be sure to have your check stubs so you can properly add deductions and market pricing.

Permalink Reply by george kosht on November 13, 2017 at 10:10am

ok thanks, the site i used was this one: http://www.palandowner.com/royaltycalculator.php

Permalink Reply by Keith Mauck (Site Publisher) on November 17, 2017 at 4:03am

The issue with this calculator is that it is using the entire Marcellus Shale play's decline curves. ShaleCast uses local wells in the vicinity of your well.

Permalink Reply by bo boboski on November 10, 2017 at 9:49am

Yes, now that the supreme court ruled that CHK. can deduct whatever they want on leases that state "no post production deductions",   About nothing will be  your royalties.! Sorry, but landowners will be getting screwed bigtime!

Permalink Reply by Barry D on November 10, 2017 at 2:15pm

bo,

That is not what that decision said, as I read it. With all due respect to you and your interpretation.

It's a complicated issue, but my interpretation is this, the decision was dealing with leases that contained "at the wellhead" language.

For those that are considering a lease, this is why you should consult a competent oil and gas attorney.

Permalink Reply by Bullfrex on November 11, 2017 at 12:05pm

George Kosht, you might consider trying Keith's suggestion of using the ShaleCast calculator. It has got to be better than anything I could cook up for you. If I had known about it, it would have saved me a whole bunch of time.

Your well production looks very healthy....best of luck to you!!

Permalink Reply by george kosht on November 13, 2017 at 10:11am

ok thanks, the site i used was this one: http://www.palandowner.com/royaltycalculator.php

Permalink Reply by David Allen Lilly on November 13, 2017 at 2:37am

I signed with Antero who traded me to Eclipse who traded 12.5 acres to Chesapeake and have been receiving royalties from them for a year or more.

I have a 20% gross no deduction lease with a good market enhancement clause.

Chesapeake has treated us exactly to our lease terms and I have not a single complaint to make against them. You or others may swear they are cheating me somewhere, somehow, but if I cannot verify it I am not losing sleep over it.

I call them as I see them, Chesapeake has a bad reputation because they have taken ultimate advantage of very non-friendly to landowner leases but I don't like it when blanket statements are made based on the broadest of assumptions painted with the widest brush.

Usually based on emotion.

Permalink Reply by David Cain on November 13, 2017 at 5:00am

David,

I don't want to put you on the spot but would a fair estimate for a Millwood township well be in the $600-$1,000 per acre per month range?  And have you seen production diminish since your well has been producing for over a year?  If so what kind of decline and when does it start occurring?

Thanks,

Dave Cain

Permalink Reply by David Allen Lilly on November 14, 2017 at 12:27pm

Hi David, I sent you a friend request, I will be happy to give you any information I can in private.

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