timing

I heard that it may take 4-5 years for the gas companies to come back to landowners in Sullivan Co due to the fact that they may lease state land 1st. Is this true?

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Permalink Reply by Paul Butski on April 2, 2010 at 8:39am
Thanks for your thoughts so you don't think any leasing will take place in my area in the next couple of years? Also do you think that it is possible other companies want to get involved other than the 3 majors? To me it would seem someone would want to lease it up and even sell it off the some other players out there even Canadian companies if it truly a gas producer like Geologist say it is. I'm not looking to get rich of my 100 acres but I thought I might have a little retirement money coming down the road. I guess not ha?
Permalink Reply by Nancy Famiola on April 2, 2010 at 9:28am
Paul,

I think a 100 acres could definately make you some money. It will take some time though. Lease prices in Pennsylvania didnt get to 6k/acre overnight. It was a long process - and it mostly involved proving up the shale with hundreds of wells. Right now in New York it is just speculation and companies don't pay well for speculation (like the lease prices from 2003-2008). It took 5 years for prices to get where they are now. The Utica could be good up there, the Marcellus could also work, but it's going to take time to prove it up. Jean is new to this game, obviously, but i have watched it grow from the getgo. This is how it works.

Once you get some wells around you lease prices will settle in at a number. Just to give you something to go by today, I would look at the lease prices in Mckean and Forest counties in Pennsylvania. Not too much drilling, fairly shallow, Marcellus quality is decent, not great. Similar to Allegheny county, New York.

As of now, those counties are still speculative, especially since the results are marginal (like the first handful of wells reported in New York in 2007). I wouldnt hold out for 6k/acre like Jean is suggesting.

Jean and I disagree mainly because his advice is to wait for these extreme offers. I want landowners to get as much as they can - but we need to be reasonable about what to expect.

Bottom line - 100 acres, if it is contiguous, in Allegheny county New York, right? I would say 100-200/acre today, maybe 1k/ acre in a few years (2012+) once your county gets 20 or so successful wells around you. Unless your county gets results that are better than Pennsylvania (core of the marcellus), I wouldnt expect anything over 1500/acre.

I have no motive here but to give good advice. James Monyak already admitted that his motive was to keep people from signing so his "oil and gas company" could pick up cheap leases. (I know, doesnt make sense). Check these boards for leases in McKean and Forest offers. Should give you a good idea of what to expect.
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 2, 2010 at 10:00am
Paul, do your own research with land groups and law firms in your area.. they will give you your best info...
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 2, 2010 at 3:31am
There is so much area to cover in both states... the advantage NYS has over time will be additional shale plays beyond the Marcellus layer..
This has Gas companies very interested as it amounts to a stacked play and much lower costs
see attched..
the last rumors and I do mean rumors are that NYS DEC will release the regulations by june this year and start issuing drilling permits by late summer..
Yeah, everyone is getting mad at albany , more and more as they watch PAs resurgence , knwing they could do the same..
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Permalink Reply by Dave on April 2, 2010 at 8:44am
Its too bad the gas companies have become less active in NY state, especially because the state is at the brink of being bankrupt. I guess there were too many tree huggers up there complaining. I heard the CEO of Chesapeake closed his books and walked out of a meeting involving drilling in NY state. When Chesapeake comes to my farm they will get red carpet treatment. Im very happy so far. Even though there is more truck traffic they have fixed the roads when needed. They also held up there end of the bargain with my lease and have been very helpful answering my questions and polite when I stopped into their office in Towanda.
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 2, 2010 at 10:02am
the Problem is NYC not up state residence...
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 2, 2010 at 5:10am
Paul , let Nancy offer proof of her claims in any form of documantation.. I have done so with my posts thoughout this forum. , she refuses too..
Don't know what her motivation is.. but it's not in yours or my interest
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 2, 2010 at 5:15am
as a matter of record the prices for leases willeventaully be higher than in PA, not my opinion.. those are Norse Energy and Fortuna Energy statements...
Permalink Reply by Nancy Famiola on April 2, 2010 at 5:37am
My claims? You haven't proved a single thing wrong I have said because the majority of it is just logical thinking (people spending their money in penn and not new york).

Norse energy and Fortuna claimed lease prices will be higher in New York than pennsylvania? Hahah. I seriously doubt any gas company would say that, nevermind two. Let's play this game - I want to see that statement.

Jean, your "proof" consists of one presentation from a non-marcellus player nobody has heard of who has drilled zero marcellus wells, and maps from 2007-2008. Oh, and quotes from local newspapers. Those are great too, haha. All of your maps only have New York on them, except for that one map from 2008 of pennsylvania you posted, which everybody here knows is way outdated and has been proven wrong with drilling.

Just sit back and listen to these people instead of being the educator. It is amusing how big your mouth is when it is very clear you know almost nothing about anything outside of new york.
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 2, 2010 at 7:41am
Nancy, I post my sources for information , now post yours..
Permalink Reply by Robin Fehrenbach Scala on April 2, 2010 at 5:53am
There are already marcellus permits waiting in NY for the process to start again.

As in PA, some areas of NY will see a lot of action and some will not. Since no one has been able to frac a NY well for marcellus there is no way to know. We will have to wait for proof.

Regardless of whether NY is as good as PA or the same or better, who cares? As long as the landowners have a chance to find out and some work is created then everyone will win.

By the way, thousands of NY landowners have been actively working to get some fact out there to counteract the lies we read all the time in newspapers about the horrors of fracking. It is still a political problem but those of us with land in NY are working on it and hoping the permits get issued soon.
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 2, 2010 at 5:49am
Nancy, you have not provided a single link or Document supporting your comments..
NOT ONE!! you are contradicting the very people you claim to work with... I proved that with the GAS Company's own documents, Cheasapeake's, Fortuna, NORSE, all disagree with you..

so stop making out like you can predict the future, when not even the CEO s can.. The Geologists all say the same things, as do the Geology maps, so go argue with them instead of picking fights with landowners..

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