ODNR Posts New Utica Maps

ODNR Division of Geological Survey has released the much anticipated Utica "HOT SPOT" maps for Ohio.

Central Ohio looks HOT,HOT, HOT with S2 values.  Far exceeding eastern Ohio.

http://www.dnr.state.oh.us/geosurvey/tabid/23014/Default.aspx

Then you have to scroll down the page until you come to the Utica Shale Files For Download entries and click on the entries with the date 'Updated 11/23/2012' at the end (in red).

Those will open maps that have now been updated from those contained in the last report dated 3/27/2012.

Or you can click on them here

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Permalink Reply by Steven A Joliat on December 1, 2012 at 7:24am

Joseph, you folks are off to a very good start.  Also pay attention to the maps showing the data points used to construct the maps.  They are very important in determining the certainty of the contour lines drawn on the map.  Some areas of the state, Monroe County for example, are not well defined due to a lack of close data points.  Other areas have several nearby data points, and a conclusion may be drawn on the area's likely performance with more certainty.  BICS' overlays of reported well production also are an excellent guide when used in conjunction with the source rock maps.  Keep in mind also that maturities represented by vitrinite also have some inherent assumptions that can vary between scientists who draw these.  There was no vitrinite in existence during the time these rocks were deposited.  It is a calculated value inferred from other measurements.  Expect some loss of precision, due to this assumption.  This is a benefit to those following a wildcatting tradition, as the common knowledge directs the majority of operators away from areas initially thought to lack potential.  It is sometimes the case that these same ugly ducklings later prove to be swans.  In truth though it is not wise to bet your farm on such a high risk.  Given the shortage of rigs and other factors, the best looking areas from these maps will likely be the first tested.  Also the geoscientists at the Ohio survey while well schooled in the application of standard industry and scientific analysis, may not be able to present the full amount of information available to the companies that are drilling these wells.  Such information is often held back by confidentiality agreements for a time or remains undisclosed.  The assumptions of the survey staff may also vary somewhat from that used by commercial operators.

Permalink Reply by searcherone on December 1, 2012 at 4:24pm

Thank you for confirming my assumption that data was not sufficient in some areas to draw any conclusions and since this play is still in its beginning stages time will tell where the hot spots truly are. 

IMHO  as a landowning layperson

Permalink Reply by Steven A Joliat on December 1, 2012 at 6:34pm

Glad to help.  I would not go as far as to say that no conclusions can be drawn in some areas.  The oil business is built on extrapolating from the well known to the unknown.  If one waits until enough is known about an area, it is often too late to develop a profitable land position.  It depends on your company's business model as well.  Many outfits do quite well for themselves coming in later and making deals.  All plays have a lifespan there are a variety of companies that decide to participate early and expect a certain economic return, others with different cost structures can effectively participate in later stages when returns are somewhat less but risks are reduced as well.

Permalink Reply by Bluflame on December 2, 2012 at 8:22am

J-O,

   I looked at the progression of the maps similarly, and concluded that it really doesn't change things very much. For instance, in Belmont County which has recently seen some huge well results, there are hardly any data points. Realistically, we'll need to see lots more well results to get an accurate picture of the Utica Shale play.

  Finally, I assert for myself your disclaimer about any in-depth technical expertise in these matters. 

BluFlame

Permalink Reply by BICS on December 1, 2012 at 3:46am

Awhile back I built a spectrum analysis showing oil current production volume by well.  I thought I'd repost it here for others who may have an interest in analyzing this data...Its interesting to note high production areas show the same basic pattern as the ODNR ODNR Hydrocarbon Map.   The writing on the wall seems to indicate that they are not having much success getting the shale oil to flow in these areas, this likely explains why most the activity is in the wet zone.

 The pin colors represent different well production levels that will show the order from best to worse; dark red (best), red, orange, yellow, green, dark green, black (no oil production).

First two map files require Google Earth viewer which you can use to build your own views. The other files are images showing different snapshots of production levels.

If you drill into the icon you can access well information.

If you have interest in viewing wells from other perspectives check out the post Ohio Oil Well Maps in Ohio Landowner section.

Attachments:
Permalink Reply by Don C on December 2, 2012 at 10:14am

Hi BICS,

I am curious of how you would know the results of these wells when the company does not divulge the results until a year after production, esp CHK?

Don C

Permalink Reply by Kathleen on December 2, 2012 at 1:51pm
Hi,
CHK like many other co's do quarterly reports to their investors which is public record and they list well results.
Permalink Reply by David Perotto on December 2, 2012 at 2:03pm
Don,
BICS is using production reports from Ohio DNR. Once on the google earth map he/she has links imbedded which take you to said reports. And must I add, a big thank you to BICS for sharing. It is a fair amount of work to produce this.
Dave
Permalink Reply by searcherone on December 2, 2012 at 2:48pm

I agree it is a great amount of work and when using Google earth one can go straight to those reports--much easier than searching on the ODNR site for the same info.   Perhaps BICS could consult with ODNR as ODNR doesn't seem to know how to make user friendly/searchable databases.   Ohio's tax dollars at work.  Just my thoughts.   

 

Permalink Reply by Don C on December 2, 2012 at 3:11pm
Thanks for the replies
Permalink Reply by Deborah Oberlin on December 1, 2012 at 7:31am

This is Deborah over at Atwood Lake Resort and I have alot of contacts with people in the business and one of the best sites for maps and easiest to understand is www.ccgusher.com    actually has a key and it is color coded and tells you if the drilled if its active etc. 

 

Permalink Reply by Steven A Joliat on December 1, 2012 at 6:21pm

Technically it is a predictor for maturity in coals.  Granted the distinction is more important to scientists rather than the general public.  The value of vitrinite reflectance which is frequently shown to indicate whether sedimentary rock containing organic material can produce specific types of hydrocarbons is most applicable to rocks of Pennsylvanian age or younger, as vitrinites are present in these rocks and the reflectance can be directly measured.  The use of a calculated equivalent vitrinite reflectance for older rocks as in the Utica and Marcellus plays has also been generally validated through correlation with other measurable though less precise parameters.  Factors other than time and temperature can influence the maturation of hydrocarbons which is why I suggest that areas appearing to be overmature based on an inferred vitrinite reflectance may later be discovered to be productive.  In any event, we are still quite limited in the available data and the published boundaries should be used with caution when attempting to determine the value of land near those boundaries.

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