Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on November 18, 2013 at 7:27am

Not a chance. I know folks there and have had joint operations with them. That's not something they would do unless there was no room in the pipeline. I think we're seeing the best production they can achieve in almost every case.

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on November 18, 2013 at 3:24pm

That's not something you can explain easily, but most of the operators in Marcellus have posted decline curve graphs in their investor presentations pretty regularly. There are differences, of cource, as each company has their own focus area and completion routine, but any one will give you a fairly good idea of the basic decline to be expected. Ideally you'd like to have a curve that averages a large number of wells each with a fairly long production history, but completion methods are still improving, so more recent curves do appear better even if there's more risk that they won't actually meet their projections.

Permalink Reply by Ann Ticopa on November 16, 2013 at 6:55am

The SWN announcement:

http://www.swn.com/investors/Press_Releases/2013/04.29.13.pdf

I doubt that the TC acreage added much (if any) value to the package. 

Permalink Reply by Thomas Lilli on November 18, 2013 at 9:13pm

Does anyone know what came of the leases on 18ooo odd acres made with the state in 07 in the Tioga region and just south. It was my understanding that they were three year 20% royalty leases (anywhere from $5700-7400/acre) with production clauses including penalties for not meeting targets.

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on November 19, 2013 at 2:50am

Some State leases have been drilled as planned, others have seen very limited activity. For instance, tract 007 in Shippen & Delmar Townships etc. cost Seneca over $48,000,000, yet has been virtually untouched due to poor results from the Marcellus in that area. The good tracts will get drilled, the marginal acreage tested and the poor areas left alone.

Permalink Reply by Ann Ticopa on November 19, 2013 at 2:59am

Unfortunately, the DCNR doesn't make that information readily available on their website ... at least that I've been able to find.  But information can be found using Google.

The 2008 lease sale results:

http://www.dcnr.state.pa.us/cs/groups/public/documents/document/dcn...

I had looked up the Talisman Tioga SF Tract 594 lease (Sept 2008 sale) and my recollection is that they are 10-year leases.  The royalty is 16% or $.35/mcf, whichever is higher.  There is also a small delay rental (starting at $20/acre). 

Permalink Reply by paleface on November 20, 2013 at 1:23am

Rumor: The super rich Utica/TBR that stretch's across the northern tier of Tioga goes into Potter county.( P.S.)  Don't tell Jack Young I want to buy his land cheap.

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on November 20, 2013 at 1:57am

And the other rumor is that it goes east, and runs into northwestern Bradford County. Maybe I ought to be buying land there intead!

Permalink Reply by Ann Ticopa on November 20, 2013 at 2:38am

Jack and Paleface:

So, what are either/both of you offering per acre for unleased 100+ acre parcels.  (Cash, of course.)

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on November 20, 2013 at 3:48am

This is a risky business, and not even Shell can tell you with certainty what areas might be promising and how profitable drilling there might be. I don't think that I'd advise anyone to bet the farm on acreage in either direction yet, leased or unleased. This is still a very speculative play, and the odds of it being large and profitable are slim despite the promising rumors so far. Losing money speculating on gas is far easier than making it.

Permalink Reply by paleface on November 20, 2013 at 11:32am

 I do think its a smart move to wait this out and see how this turns out.If this Northern tier can produce similar to the Gee well I would think land values will rise considerably.

Permalink Reply by Larry Linder on November 25, 2013 at 8:44am

Went by Neal pad today. Rig is being moved but trucks went south toward Beechwood Lake

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