PDC 2-12-2014 Presentation

 see pages 14,15,16......... see page 16, "EUR in excess of 1 million Boe "......... 1 million bl. of energy per well.....what does "excess" mean?.... 2,3,4,or 5 times???...............assume 20% royalty and $80/bl of energy and 100 acres per wells......at 1 million bl. of energy per well, landowner possible royalties over the life of the well would be $160,000/acre (remember the Energy Company will receive 80% or 4 times what the land owner recieves).....you can do the math for 2 or 3 times their "excess of" number is........my point is the question of..... "is the land owner receiving proper value currently" from PDC at about $4,000-$4500/acre for leasing?......I have my opinion, you may have yours......I believe it is time for the landowner to consider going on the side line and waiting a few years, or until something changes.......With what the Energy Companies know now about what the real value of the product down there is worth, the landowner is "not" receiving proper payment for leasing their land..............ALL IMHO....Gary

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Permalink Reply by PA Joe on February 12, 2014 at 10:14am

The landowner could always go spend the 10-11 Million dollars it takes to drill one of these things. So if you use your math and say 1 Million BOE or barrles of oil equivalent (most of which is gas) the well is only going to gross about 60 Million dollars. Minus the say 10 it took to drill it that leaves 50 million, minus the half million dollars for the lease leaves 49.5 million minus another 12 million dollars in royalty payments to the landowner gives you 37.5 million to the company. The oil industry is producing so much oil right now that they are going to do to oil prices what they did to gas prices and in 2 years it will be 50 dollars a barrel and it wont even pay to drill the Utica. If you can wait another 20-30 years for your 12.5 million go for it. I'm old and I leased my farm in Monroe County because 12.5 million is more than I ever thought I would or expected to be worth. Different strokes for different folks.

0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on February 12, 2014 at 12:31pm

"assume 20% royalty and $80/bl of energy"

I will not assume that because it's very, very ridiculous.  Depending on the mix of liquids and the content of said liquids you're likely at about half that number in the lean condensate/rich gas window.  GPOR is right around $42/boe based on estimates done by people smarter than me.  $80/boe is only going to be accurate in wells that have lots of oil and almost no gas or gas liquids.  So far we haven't seen any part of the play emerge with such an oil-weighted production figure.

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