Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Thomas Lilli on December 22, 2019 at 2:30am

I negotiated a 15/15/5 with Repsol in 2016. If you’re getting better offers you’d be best to take it but have a reputable attorney review.

Let me know if you need a Referal.

Permalink Reply by GotGas on December 30, 2019 at 4:34am

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4314334-natural-gas-going-new-deca...

A spring low

The price of nearby natural gas futures fell to the lowest level since 2016 when they traded $2.029 in August 2019.

Source: CQG

The monthly chart shows that below $2.029, the first level of technical support stands at the psychological $2 per MMBtu level. However, natural gas could blow through that price as a hot knife goes through butter as the critical level on the downside is at the March 2016 bottom at $1.611 per MMBtu. The long-term chart shows that price momentum and relative strength are in oversold territory. Monthly historical volatility at under 23.5% reflects a slow and steady decline. The total number of open long and short positions at 1.27 million contracts at the end of last week was well below the high of 1.622 million in September 2018 when natural gas was preparing to move to a high at $4.929 per MMBtu in November 2018.

Natural gas traded to a high of $6.493 in 2014 and fell to a low of $1.611 in March 2016. The most recent high of $4.929 per MMBtu came in 2018, and a move down to a new and lower low below the $1.60 level during the spring of 2020 could be in the cards. Meanwhile, the low in 2016 turned out to be a buying opportunity, and similar price action during the first half of 2020 could be the same.

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on December 30, 2019 at 12:08pm

Its almost Jan 1 st and the price of N gas is a joke .... Producers cannot help themselves and heaven forbid they got together to reduce production , the Gov would be all over them for price fixing ......

Permalink Reply by william Allen. Ladd on December 31, 2019 at 3:24am

Some of the luckier or not so lucky landowners made poor choices and went whole hog and borrowed against the promise of large monthly royalty's for years to come. So now they have constructed new homes, bought new and better farm equipment and upgraded their property.  So now their promised balloon full of dollar bills deflated and they are left with a truck load of bills to pay.

Other smaller landowners welcomed what ever windfall came their way. And tried to catch up, if they were lucky, with outstanding bills. A few others managed to eat out at McDonalds or Kentucky Fried Chicken once a week instead of peanut butter  sandwiches!

However, all of us were rewarded with upgraded bridges, fewer potholes per mile and some township roads being converted from rutted almost impassable cow paths at times, to paved sections at least to well sites.

Now if someone will just put their brain cells to work and find new uses, products, etcetera for  the surplus of gas and oil, the country indeed would be in pretty good shape.

Come on you Chemists and scientists, Put your brains to work to find solutions to the surplus!

Granddad Ladd

 

Permalink Reply by Bullfrex on December 31, 2019 at 8:00am

Boom or Bust...been this way for many years...many cycles. No reason to think this will be any different than the past, although I can see the 'lows' lasting longer this time.

Count yourself blessed if you have been drilled since the last bust...because the next boom is years away...and very few will be drilled in the coming months/years. The waiting game can be a good thing if you are young, but if you are older, the recent past drilling/production has been a stroke of luck that one should be thankful for...just sayin...

Permalink Reply by william Allen. Ladd on January 1, 2020 at 2:11am

"Boom or Bust!"   I've heard that phrase so many times from my father for the past 85 years. Seems like every time the new party gets elected the "Boom" comes. And when the other party wins, well....., then comes the "Bust!"

Granddad Ladd

Permalink Reply by GotGas on January 21, 2020 at 11:09am

NG Price closed at $1.91 today. If it continues down the next support level is at $1.60. If you have been drilled....be grateful you are! IMO this is not a Boom or Bust issue. Huge major shale discoveries of NG are taking place almost weekly with no end in sight of that happening. Shell announced a huge shale reserve in Australia two weeks ago...

Seneca announced today that they have 3 rigs in operation in PA and that they are pulling their drilling rig from Tioga Co as soon as the 6 well pad is completed possible before summer. 

There is absolutely no evidence that indicated that demand will out source supply for years to come. (IMO)

EQT is floundering

Repsol is forging ahead in the southern townships.....

SWN is hanging on.

And Granddad, I get the impression you believe that Trump is the cause. Be very careful for what you may be praying for. 

Happy New Year!

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on January 22, 2020 at 1:32am

Tioga is done for now ,,,,,   Only tier #1 assets will be drilled ..........

Permalink Reply by GotGas on January 22, 2020 at 3:39am

What is a Tier #1 asset?

Permalink Reply by william Allen. Ladd on January 22, 2020 at 4:57am

I don't know for sure, GOTGAS, but maybe Ralph cramdon might be talking about the Northern Tier of Pennsylvania.

Permalink Reply by Bullfrex on January 22, 2020 at 5:11am

My question regarding Tier 1 spots...are they more profitable wells because of the sheer volume they produce?

I guess E&P's have to produce to maintain some cash flow, but isn't producing your 'best acreage' in this price environment kinda like selling the farm at a discount??

Another question...in a low NG price environment, why not produce more wells from an existing (tier 2 or lesser) pad to save some of the costs? The lease is in effect, the pad is built, pipelines are in place, etc.

Permalink Reply by GotGas on January 22, 2020 at 5:34am

What is a Tier #1 asset?

What is a Tier #2 asset?

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