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Permalink Reply by farmgas on July 28, 2021 at 10:46am

Ralph: Is hedged gas good or bad for a gas company?  Seems it locks them into a pricing which may help them during lower gas price environments but prevents them from taking advantage of surging market prices.  

Looking at a CNX quarterly report from 2 years ago they say they 15 years of Marcellus well growth in SWPA and 25 years in CPA South.  The SWPA wells would be Tier 1 and the CPA wells, I think, would be Tier 2.  Are you hearing these numbers might not be accurate?  

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Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on July 28, 2021 at 2:05pm

You are correct Farmgas ... in a environment of lowering gas prices hedges may be very helpful to profits , conversely ,, rising gas prices may hurt profits if the spot price goes above  the hedged price ... NGL is harder to hedge , and usually not fully hedged ... banks may require hedges to help support income for repayment of loans ... This qtr will be less than stellar due to many outfits hedgings well below today's price ....

 Many analyst believe CNX does  have a limited future drilling sites vs others ,, same goes for COG ..... 

 

Look for Free Cash Flow .... The higher the percent to Market Cap the better ........ 

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Permalink Reply by farmgas on July 29, 2021 at 6:27am

CNX delivered their 2nd quarter report today.  Basically all financial information and not much information for landowners or lease holders.  Very little information about their operations.  Do analyst prefer this type of report over ones with maps, graphs and statistics for their operations?

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Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on July 29, 2021 at 1:56pm

CNX had a lot of production hedged , drilled some Marcellus , zippo Utica .. Unimpressed .. Differentials not too good either .....

 

EQT got a butt whupping today on big losses due to hedging , also provided info on 2022 hedges , markets very unhappy with EQT .... 

 AR once you get past the headlines actually had a very decent qtr ... Outlook is favorable .. Free Cash flow in the 17 to 20% range ....... 

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Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on July 29, 2021 at 1:58pm

PS I currently own EQT and AR ... With a bias to sell EQT .... 

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on July 29, 2021 at 2:01pm

Looking at CNX a bit deeper ... CNX had a very decent Free Cash flow qtr ...... 

Permalink Reply by farmgas on August 18, 2021 at 2:03pm

Ralph, how did your review of CNX look to you?  Anything positive to be encouraged about?  What about some smaller companies like APEX Energy and Olympus in SW PA,  will they continue to expand their holdings?  They both seem to be growing in the Westmoreland County area.

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