Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by wyalusing jim on April 6, 2013 at 3:42am

well, i hope that i'm right too matt, lol.

i have run the numbers based on actual royalty payments a number of times. i've run them with high variables and low, and in all cases excluding the worst case scenarios, (bad shale), the royalties far outweigh the bonus.

when you consider the difference between the various R%'s, 12.5, 15 and 20%, it is definitely shortsighted to tradeoff even a % of royalty for bonus.

now if for some reason you are sure that you wont be drilled or that your wells wont produce much, your thinking would have more validity. but then i think you'd have to ask yourself why the companies are making offers on shale that wont produce. i think we would all agree that at this point in the play, the companies know alot more about the resource than we do.

sometime if you feel like it, i'd buy you a cup of coffe or a beer and we can kick this stuff around in person. it's much easier to communicate with the spoken word than typing.

wj

Permalink Reply by Brian Woodcock on April 6, 2013 at 9:12am

Yes my calculation agree $1 million [ minimum] over the life of a single good well. That is a well good enough for the Gas Company to keep for twenty years. Remember everyone, many leases are getting ready to expire right around now, be smart, be ready and have a firm strategy ready when the letters start coming and the "new" landman comes knocking.. Keep in touch with this site, it's worth millions.

Permalink Reply by Chartist on April 6, 2013 at 11:30am

The chart on nat gas points to $6 per MCF....probably within 18 months.

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Permalink Reply by Chartist on April 6, 2013 at 11:29am

I said this two years ago; the only thing you can count on is the signing bonus.

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