ODNR Projections For Utica Shale Future Production

http://the-daily-digger.blogspot.com/2013/05/odnr-releases-projecti...

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Permalink Reply by David Perotto on May 17, 2013 at 12:54pm

This article has some insight, written by a petroleum engineer:

http://www.eidohio.org/ohios-production-numbers-dont-tell-all/

 

Personally, I trust an engineer's insight into the ODNR reports. My intuition also tells me that the ODNR's projections are very conservative. Their 3 year forecast simply doesn't properly extrapolate the first year production into the future. Even if you take an aggressive decline curve into account, their projections in their table are too low. For those of you still negotiating with a company, don't let the negative reports coerce you into selling too low.

 

Best of luck to everyone as this plays out, it is going to be exciting to watch this play out. Until the midstream is properly handling production, these production numbers will underperform reality.

Just my two cents.

Dave 

Permalink Reply by David Mohn on May 17, 2013 at 11:30pm

no one says anything much about eastern Stark County Ohio.  Looks like we might be on the edge of the wet gas/oil windows.  Enervest and CHK  were going to put a pad on my farm.  Did all the water well testing all around, Had the enviromental engineers out doing their thing. Drilled down to check the water table height and surveyed and marked off the well pad.  Then nothing?   That was a year ago. 

Any projections for eastern Stark County?????????  beside being patient!

Permalink Reply by Hunter 1 on May 18, 2013 at 3:16pm
Wondering the same thing we are dealing with all the extra traffic etc... But no progress on wells
015334grltd9mPermalink Reply by 015334grltd9m on May 19, 2013 at 2:27am

David,

No one is worried here as well.  Contrary, amazing the continued massive investment in the NE..

Permalink Reply by Trapper on May 19, 2013 at 2:06am

Could the concerted effort lately to downplay the magnitude of the shale plays in PA & OH be just a ploy to demoralize the landowners into selling their minerals for the pennies on the dollar ? Are these so called investor groups actually just shell companies for the majors? These are some of the questions in my mind pertaining to all of this.

In order to explore the play , the drillers had no choice but to lease , thus tipping us that we had minerals of interest under our feet. Now that they have drilled and are more sure of what we have , could it just be that what they have truly found is wildly beyond expectations and the "damage control" scramble has begun?

Things are getting just a little too strange too fast here lately. I try to keep an open mind but , IMO , I feel that alot of propaganda is being put out there to try to shake our faith and dash our hopes for the sake of profiteering.

I am forming the opinion that we are sitting on far more wealth than we can comprehend and the powers that be are doing all that they can do diminish our role in the profits.

Maybe I'm nuts , but sometimes you just have to go with your gut instincts to separate the wheat from the chaff.

That said , I will now await the impending IRS audit which will now be coming my way........LOL?.......

Permalink Reply by paleface on May 19, 2013 at 2:44am

 Don't look to deep into this,its simply supply and demand.

Permalink Reply by David Perotto on May 19, 2013 at 2:53am
Glenn,
You are safe with the IRS as long as you proclaim that you are either a liberal or socialist. (Lol)
Mike MurphyPermalink Reply by Mike Murphy on May 19, 2013 at 6:27am

I TOTALLY AGREE WITH THE OPINION THAT IT IS MORE THEN EVER EXPECTED AND THE BIG PLAYERS ARE PLAYING CHESS WITH US      A WELL IN EASTERN CARROLL COUNTY HAS PRODUCED 29,000 BARRELL OF OIL IN 120 DAYS YET FOR SOME REASON ALL DRILLING IN THAT AREA IS ON HOLD BY CHEASEPEAK .......WHY IF A WELL IS THAT GOOD WOULD A COMPANY PUT THAT AREA ON HOLD .....MOST PRODUCING WELLS IN 2012  THAT WHERE REPORTED ARE IN THE WET GAS AREA BUT CAIRNS 5H IS IN THE OIL WINDOW 

Permalink Reply by TM on May 19, 2013 at 9:01am

I bet if oil jumps to $100 a barrel the drilling will accelerate in the oil window. I think they are just drilling now where they can hook into sales lines right away.

Permalink Reply by Jed Clampett on May 23, 2013 at 8:41am

They have too many open leases they need to secure with Held By Production, so wells will be single and scattered all over to secure those leases forever, then they will come back and add wells as the need production to meet demand.

Permalink Reply by Gary L on May 19, 2013 at 8:46am

Glenn,

You make a good point. There are a lot of issues with developing a new play with this kind of magnitude. Keep in mind over time, things will start to take shape with infrastructural pipelines,

processing facilities, excessive land grabs that are swapped, sold, and traded to establish grids,

and all other issues involved with development. I am sure it will expand with time for get better.

Yes, they would like to have all the cards in the deck, but are restricted at this point in time with 

what they have to work with. Don't be mislead by the media reports, comparing developed Eagle Ford and Bakken Plays, as we are in the very early stages of development. One thing to keep in mind is, getting leases at the lowest cost makes good business, they have JV's currently buying up leases for deep rights far into the western Utica for a reason, and there are multi- formations to be explored in the Utica. The downplay is all part of the process. I remain optimistic.  

Permalink Reply by Ed C on May 19, 2013 at 10:25am

It's not so much playing chess with landowners--they are playing chess with each other.  Horsetrading acreage among themselves.  It's a buyers market and there are a lot of sellers int he Utica.  Devon, Enervest, and Chesapeake have a bunch of land outside of the wetgas areas they want to sell.   The oil window being a particularly tough sell as $80-90 oil isn't quite enough to "crack the code" to get the oil out of the ground in economic quantities.   The gas windows also are suffering from historically low gas prices--though gas has doubled in price over the past year, $4 gas isn't going to make the drillers or the landowners rich.  Notice the rig count nationwide is still in decline.  NGL's also have a problem in that there is a glut of ethane that isn't easily worked offf right now.   Propane has been helped by the normal winter and a few export projects.  But Ethane is just starting to find export solutions and the crackers are still on the drawing board.  So the reluctance to go hog wild by the drillers and gas companies is real.  Utica isn't dead.  Not by a longshot.  But it is being slow rolled while infrastructure gets built out and markets get developed. 

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