Monroe county....New "Top Dog" in shale play? (8,800 BOE/D)

Antero Resouces just released these production #'s this morning.  Check out pg 3.

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Permalink Reply by Ridgerunner on September 20, 2013 at 1:45am

I have heard alot of rumors as to where but will not divulge because I can not confirm validity.  I would like to know that too Chappy76.  When the pipelines and processing facilites are complete and the remaining wells go online there will be alot of activity.

Permalink Reply by Chappy76 on September 20, 2013 at 2:06am
I have 6 acres in Franklin township, signed a lease with Antero earlier this year.
I think there is are 2 640 acre tracts involved. We are close to Rt 145 and 724.
Permalink Reply by searcherone on October 5, 2013 at 1:24pm

http://www.ohio.com/blogs/drilling/ohio-utica-shale-1.291290/analys...

 

Very interesting analysis here regarding Gulfport.  Question is asked should Belmont and Monroe Cos. be compared to Pa for the dry gas.

What does anyone think?

Permalink Reply by The Hiker on October 6, 2013 at 2:00am

It sounds like the two analysts quoted have been listening to Gary Evans' presentations on the future of Magnum Hunter's acreage prospects.   Mr. Evans stated he thought individual well dry gas production in Eastern Ohio could reach 50 Mmcf.   With the Antero Monroe wells approaching that, he may be right that the Point Pleasant could rival the gas productivity of the Marcellus in PA.   Increased frac stage density, sand charge, etc... and whatever other (secret) tech solutions will be used as the play unfolds could drive the number higher.  $86/share for GPOR?   Wow.

 

Permalink Reply by bo boboski on October 6, 2013 at 12:24pm

Let's see:  8800 barrels at $100. per day = $880,000. smackarooskies. or, x 30 days= $$26,400,000. per month!  Don't know what that well's unit acreage is, but if it was a 640 acre unit,which I doubt, =$41,250 per acre, per month. If the landowner gets 20%  ,that's $8250. per acre. I'd be happy with one acre in that unit! If it's a 165 acre unit, your looking at $32,000. per acre,per month, for the landowner. If it is a 640 acre unit, then it will have 5 or 6 of them there wells!  Any land for sale in Noble/Monroe counties?

Permalink Reply by TM on October 6, 2013 at 2:40pm
Bo you don't get paid a $100 a barrel for all the production. You will get nat gas price of $3.51, the price of NGL which is $30 something a barrel and probably $1 or so a gallon, and the price of oil which is $103.84. Also these are peak rates not production rates. Until you have a division order showing your decimal interest in the unit nobody can come up with an amount. Also don't forget about decline curves as well.

It is fun to crunch the numbers but until you get a royalty check in the mail it is all speculation. Don't get me wrong the money can be big, but I think for most landowners these numbers will never happen unless the well is a gusher. The potential could be huge in some of these southern counties though.
Permalink Reply by bo boboski on October 6, 2013 at 10:23pm

I may be an optimist? Was looking at Best case senerio.  On this site, someone said that "BOE" means barrels of oil equivalent,meaning  or counting in all the production;gas,oil,condensate,ethane,butane,propane,all added up to somewhere around $100. per barrel recovery from all sales.  Antero posted their #s on 7/8 wells in noble/Monroe counties ,averaging over 7000 BOED . I know they are going public and will be wanting to sell shares at$40. So,yea, peak rates for sure.

015334grltd9mPermalink Reply by 015334grltd9m on October 6, 2013 at 2:57pm

Bo, even so with your exuberence, you have the closest calculation to reality what the numbers really are with these Utica wells. Try this:

130 acre unit with a conservative 2000 BOE per day?  And you are right that 640 acres only means more wells on the pad.

Permalink Reply by Madd man on October 7, 2013 at 6:56am

It is a 640 acre unit. 

(3 wells per unit)

(2 units per pad)

These numbers are based on one well.  So actual numbers are *3.

Correct math for 1 acre @ 20% royalities if you round to $100 per barrel. (acutal numbers will range between $25-100 per BOE)

8800*3*$100 = $ 2640000 *30 *(1/640*(.2))

=  

$24,750 per acre per month per unit (assuming no production decline) 

Permalink Reply by searcherone on October 22, 2013 at 5:23pm

Not sure which Monroe County discussion to post this in, but here it this:

This week's issue of Monroe County Beacon states that County Commissioners leased 24 acres in Switzerland Township to Gulfport Energy for 7K per acre.   No statement about royalty% or if there is or isn't an enhancement clause.   Appears that more than one company is paying the 7K figure.

Permalink Reply by Bill Frost on December 31, 2013 at 3:07am

I cant wait to see what the Wilson and graves unit will put out.  This should be even better for Antero.  Noble, Monroe Co. line

Permalink Reply by The Hiker on December 31, 2013 at 3:40am

Agree with you there!   The next pad west of the Wilson will contain a unit with the "working" name "KAHRIG", and (IMHO) will be a bigger mon$ter (more condensate) than any of them, although the GRAVES will be huge.    So far, the layout of units on the Noble/Monroe line now look like dominoes with no wasted space; the RUBEL, FRANKLIN, YONTZ, NORMAN, DK CARPENTER, MCDOUGAL, GARY, GRAVES, SIBERIAN, KAHRIG are all contiguous.   I think Antero has got something there.

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