Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Berthenia Fuentes on July 25, 2015 at 3:48am

Thanks, Dexter.  Will you please keep me informed about the activity in Trumbull County, if any should start?

Permalink Reply by Sage59 on July 25, 2015 at 4:53am

Dexter's analysis unfortunately makes sense, and I've learned to appreciate his input, good or bad. There is no malice or enjoyment behind it, just hard facts. His final paragraph is hard to argue against, as his knowledge of these things goes way above my pay grade. I would just like to add "for now" to the first sentence.

 We've moved from companies throwing money around like candy in a parade, to a very quiet state. The list of negatives at present is obvious, led by nothing new presently going on here. Even when I remove my rose colored glasses, though, there are still some good things present. The Kibler well is a good one. The Wells BP sold are still in production and not stripped of equipment as Mr. Widely suggested. Privately owned Hilcorp (not at the beck and call of investors) is active in Mahoning and Mercer counties (you could almost hit a few Mercer wells with a rock from the Trumbull County line). The huge 205 page study recently completed by West Virginia U still places the majority of Trumbull and almost all of Mahoning in the wet gas and oil sweet spot. I sure don't mean to imply that I understood a word of the study, after page two I just started looking at the pictures. This attached file is the one that caught my eye. I hope it is a picture of future development. The oil and gas is there. The study says that it is present. It just doesn't seem to be economic to get it for now.

 Thanks again Dexter for your input, it is always well thought out and appreciated. We landowners all have a lot of decisions to make regarding our personal futures and the future of mineral rights on our properties. I stated in another post that I had, by chance, spoken with a Mahoning County building inspector who had been in a meeting with a VP from Vallourec concerning an expansion. The VP (according to the building inspector) said that "You have no idea what you are standing over here". I hope we find out that he is correct. Recent studies and reports seem to back him up. No doubt that it will take time, maybe a lot, to ultimately find out.

Attachments:

• uticashaleplaybookstudyfromwvu182638.jpg, 149 KB

Permalink Reply by Berthenia Fuentes on July 25, 2015 at 5:05am

Thanks for your reply.  Any information I get is well accepted.  Hopefully, something positive will happen for everyone very soon.

Permalink Reply by MJ on July 25, 2015 at 2:17pm

Thanks Dexter and Sage for your input - Well thought out statements that are greatly appreciated by us "goat farmers" in Trumbull.  Wonder how Ron E is doing in Poland.

Permalink Reply by Dexter Green on July 25, 2015 at 4:25pm

Well remember, Ron was super smart and he held out for $10,000/ac.  Wonder if he ever got it?

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on July 26, 2015 at 1:34am

Sage59,

Thanks for your reply.

Personally, I never owned a pair of those rose colored glasses and nothing ever even looked a little bit rosy to me.

But......being a very skeptical (even cynical) type I notice things; like the abrupt termination of the northern extent of the 'oil sweetspot' indicated on the map you've attached.  It's almost as if someone had gone ahead and built an impervious (to natural gas and oil) vertical wall deep below the earth's surface there. Then, I say to myself: 'Self - something just doesn't look quite right about that; perceiving that deep underground vertical (impervious to natural gas and oil) walls don't normally occur in nature and would be a ridiculously expensive bit of infrastructure to build out.

Then, I (once again) conclude (to my satisfaction anyway) that it must be the 'empowered' stalling / controlling development to maximize their return at the great expense of our domestic economy / prosperity.

In the meantime, politics, wars, half truths, outright lies abound just like always.

How long will it take for things to straighten out one may ask ? I'll guess sometime after the next Presidential election (as if elections mean something / giving credit where no credit is due).

JMHO

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on July 26, 2015 at 1:19am

Dex,

I've been reading that recent technology (more recent than when Trumbull County development began) has already favorably impacted developmental costs (making it more economical to develop certain horizontal wells).

Good to read but would like to know what that technological development consists of exactly and how favorable the impact.

Reading $50.00 per barrel is still turning profits for some developers.

Got anything on that Dex ?

Permalink Reply by Dexter Green on July 26, 2015 at 7:29am

$50/bbl is maybe profitable for a handful of shale producers who have been in an established field for a while and have driven down their sunk costs.  That number is unsustainable for too long, even for companies like Continental and Anadarko, both of whom are top notch operators.  To start over--which is what a new technology in an unproven area like Trumbull would essentially be--you need to have a better idea of what long term pricing is going to look like.  If Trumbull can be cracked then it will be done much further out than the other parts of Ohio/PA that have been derisked so far.  Like I said, this is a cycle, and we're only at the beginning of the downturn.  It could last for years if global growth continues to decelerate.  If you ever want to know how the rest of the world is developing just look at what is happening with Caterpillar.  They are a proxy for the economies of China and Latin America.  Right now they're signaling a global depression.  

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on July 26, 2015 at 7:31am

Thanks for your reply Dex.

Global Depression.

With the U.S.A on the cusp of energy independence.

That suks to read.

Let's see - how to protect ourselves (the U.S.A.) from the pain and suffering of a 'Global Depression' ?

Embargos, Tariffs Treaty's ?

Another war front or two or three or more perhaps ?

Or pander to the whims of enemies / enemies in disguise as allies ?

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on July 26, 2015 at 8:55am

I think it's way passed time to stop concerning ourselves with the N.W.O. - as I see no real order in it myself.

We're also way, way late in looking out for ourselves.

If the empowered are not on our side I wonder whose side they're on ? ?

Or is it necessary to wonder ? ?

If they're not with us why are we to believe that they are not against us ? ?

Things seem pretty well screwed up / topsy turvey to me.

Permalink Reply by Dexter Green on July 26, 2015 at 3:37pm

China couldn't grow at double digits forever.  Latin America has always been teetering, even in the good times.  A slowdown in energy consumption was inevitable, despite what some would have you believe.  Again, it's a natural part of economics, and with the two largest players in the world of stable economies--the US and the Eurozone--pumping liquidity into the market the chance for malinvestment was high.

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on July 26, 2015 at 9:17pm

Any investment other than investment in our domestic economy is a malinvestment in my books.

Looking for 'like-mindedness' here - so it would be great to read your (more direct) answers to the couple of inquiries posed above, Dex.

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