This is a very optomistic article about the future of natural gas....A must read for the doom and gloomers!!!

http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2016/02/is-natural-gas-the-fossil...

The current view of the tree huggers and the politicians that pander to that interest is a real threat to the prognosis

of the future of natural gas but in reading about the costs estimated to take renewable energy to the scale that it would be a threat to natural gas would deter many countries to invest the enormous amounts of money required would seem to indicate that the world wide market would use natural gas in lieu of renewables for many decades to come......!!!

Be interesting to hear what you experts have to say but I believe the long term outlook for natural gas is on solid ground after we regroup from the oversupply currently in the market.

“Natural gas is a fuel of the future,” wrote Daniel Yergin in his 2011 opus The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World. At the time, the notion that natural gas would eventually overtake coal – and even oil – as the most widely consumed fossil fuel in the world was not new. But it was just beginning to take on a new level of certainty. That same year the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised the question in its annual World Energy Outlook, which it called, “Are We Entering A Golden Age of Gas?” It predicted that by 2035 global natural supplies would need to grow by 1.8 trillion cubic meters per day from their current level in order to meet demand – a figure that is three times the current production of Russia.

Today that forecast holds strong, despite the fact that many world leaders seem prepared to phase out fossil fuels with a heightened vigor following the COP21 meetings in Paris last December. In its most recent 2015 outlook, the IEA predicted that under current policies, natural gas consumption would increase by 60 per cent between now and 2040, compared to 30-per cent growth for oil. Under more stringent environmental policies that would keep global atmospheric concentrations of C02 under 450 parts per million (ppm), natural gas consumption is still expected to grow by 15 per cent, compared to a reduction of 20 per cent for oil.

“What you can take from the IEA report is that the outlook for gas is stronger than other fossil fuels,” says Jackie Forrest, the vice-president of energy research at ARC Financial. “So, gas is a growth market, even under the scenario where we try to stay within that 450 ppm threshold.” Predicting just how all of this will shape up is impossible, but under all scenarios natural gas appears set to emerge the winner among all of the fossil fuels. To what degree natural gas plays a role in our future depends on three distinct yet tightly intertwined factors.

Coal Falls From Favor

Much of the expected demand for natural gas is a result of an ongoing attempt by world leaders to phase out coal consumption. In its 2015 outlook, under a scenario that assumes heavy environmental restriction, the IEA forecasts that coal’s share of the global electricity mix will fall to 30 per cent by 2040, down from its current portion of 41 per cent. Because is it seen as the “cleanest” of the fossil fuels, creating 30 per cent less emissions than oil, natural gas is seen as the least-harmful fuel to fill the void left by coal — especially as people seem to grow steadily more wary about nuclear power.

North American demand for natural gas is by no means the driver of global demand, but it will nonetheless see steady demand growth for natural gas as governments turn to cleaner sources of electricity. In a report that forecasts natural gas demand out to 2050, Solomon Associates says natural gas for power generation in North America will increase from 28 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) today to over 42 bcf/d in 2050, an increase of nearly 50 per cent (that’s an average of about 0.5-per cent growth per year). “When we examine gas demand over a long horizon, as our 2050 outlook does, the shear magnitude of growth becomes apparent,” says Bill Gwozd, Solomon’s senior vice-president of gas services.

The most significant North American coal-related policy to date is U.S. President Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, which threw coal producing states into a frenzy when it was first implemented in June 2014. In Canada, and more recently in Alberta, new regulations around coal power and air quality will reduce overall emissions from coal significantly. For its part, Alberta is pushing to phase out coal by 2030. By one estimate, which was cited by Alberta’s Climate Change Panel in its note to the environment minister, coal-fired power generation capacity across Canada will fall to 2,500 MW in 2030, down from over 6,000 MW today.

Renewables Take Flight

There are numerous small factors that could slightly increase or decrease these projections. For example, natural gas in transportation could finally see a major surge. But the real wildcard in natural gas demand forecasts is renewable energy sources. “To meet that 450 [ppm] target set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, you really need a lot of conversion to renewables, so that is the one threat to gas,” says Jackie Forrest of ARC Financial. “In a scenario where the world creates policy to limit emissions within that 450 ppm range, gas market share is smaller than would be the case otherwise.”

The costs for renewable sources like wind and solar are falling fast, and are constantly seeing improvements in energy return on investment (EROI), but building up capacity nonetheless requires heavy spending. Global investment in renewables is expected to reach $400 billion by 2030, up from $270 billion today. That is sure to pay major dividends in future. The IEA predicts that under current policy, global consumption of renewables will increase threefold by 2040; under more stringent government regulations, it predicts renewables would grow by a factor of eight. Investment in clean energy will continue as countries feel increasing pressure to keep global temperatures under control. With billions funding research and innovation efforts, a ground-shifting improvement in renewable energy is plausible.