Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Roy Siefert on September 25, 2018 at 8:34am

If you negotiated a lease using Jackie Root's addendum Old Timer is correct.

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on September 26, 2018 at 7:28am

My understanding is that Shell has been leasing up whatever rights weren't held by Marcellus wells on the old East leases as these Horizontal Pugh Clause provisions kicked in. It's definitely possible that they missed some, but I doubt there will be any large enough blocks available to attract other players. Nobody new will come into the county for a few locations, I'm afraid.

Results to the east of the proven areas in Tioga County haven't been promising so far, and Shell had some of that acreage for sale about a year ago and didn't get any takers. So I think they're pretty safe with what they have, and not likely to raise their offers unless somebody new does get involved in a big way. (And if there was someone interested, they would have just bought what Shell had for sale.)

I've heard that Shell loves the geology in the core area, but their well costs are too high and natural gas prices too low to make any money right now. So they're holding on to what they have, and waiting for better conditions. My guess is that we won't see any significant new drilling in Tioga County until 2020. Let's hope I'm wrong!

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on September 26, 2018 at 4:43pm

Shell is just completing those last couple wells - they have no drilling rig running in Tioga County. Eclipse is an unknown - I've heard that they're planning to cut back on the length of their laterals, but given the merger who knows how many wells they'll actually drill. JKLM looks set to continue drilling steadily, however - they are using private money and run a low-cost operation, so probably have better economics than either of the others. As their drilling approaches western Tioga County we'll find out how good Clymer, Gaines and northern Shippen Townships might be. Fingers crossed....

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on September 26, 2018 at 4:36pm

I wouldn't assume that the Eclipse map of the area is accurate. Every company likes to claim that their acreage is the core of the core! I like the northern third of Delmar Township, but the Miller and Houck wells were disappointing, and the Willard never even went into production. Something seems to happen when you reach Wellsboro which isn't good. Not that there isn't any gas outside the core, it's just not close to profitable at today's prices.

I see the Houck as a sign that you can't go further south economically, but going west isn't necessarily a problem. Moving east and south both look very risky, and north is off limits due to New York's decision to prevent shale development. So west is really where the action is. That being said, I'm not sure that anyone knows what's up towards Elkland and Lawrenceville yet. Various storage fields have limited activity there, so we could be in for a pleasant surprise one day.

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on September 27, 2018 at 3:29am

And I'll bet we never see a 20,000' lateral - the rock is too hard! Look for 10 to 12,000' to be the standard for the time being.

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on September 27, 2018 at 12:10pm

I assume you know that the southern boundary of the Dominion storage field is several miles away from the state land you mention, with thousand of acres of Shell leases in between, and that Eclipse has leases outside the old storage field (mainly to the north) that make their acreage position much larger and more useful than what Dominion originally gave them. You might not know, however, that Shell and Eclipse (and Travis Peak before them) have  swapped leases and have further exchanges under consideration that would allow each party to drill more optimally designed units. Or that drilling successful super long laterals isn't just a matter of drilling longer laterals. But either way, I stand by my earlier predictions. Let's just see what happens.

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on September 29, 2018 at 5:28am

You can plot the private land gap south of the Sabinsville storage field on the official field map. It varies in width, but averages just under 3 miles across. Corporate intentions are hard to gauge, but the extent of the private land involved isn't really debatable.   

Permalink Reply by Ann Ticopa on September 27, 2018 at 1:01pm

Real soon now?
From the article cited:
" In the first half of the year, the U.S. delivered 9.8 million tons of LNG globally, with 59% of its exports going to Asia and only 4% to Europe, according to Andy Flower, a U.K.-based independent LNG consultant and industry veteran.  ..."

Permalink Reply by paleface on September 29, 2018 at 4:43am

https://www.shaledirectories.com/news/Facts-Rumors-304-September-15...

Permalink Reply by Darrell Weaver on September 29, 2018 at 2:43pm

Old Timer

What do u know regarding Plummer site......? 

I believe that is all Swepi area.

I am between Sharretts & Plummer site and I am leased to Shell.........

Thanks

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on September 29, 2018 at 3:37pm

Shell's acreage position by the Plumber location is about as good as any they have in that area - they could drill laterals 7,500' long in both directions from that site. And the Sharretts well was one of the best they drilled in that era on a per lateral foot basis. I'm not sure that Shell has been able to renew all this acreage, however, as one map I saw showed a blank space just south of the Plumber that would be hard to work around. But it does look good geologically and there's room to operate, even if the laterals would be fairly short by current standards.  

Drilling wells in both directions from the same pad will always be cheaper than building a second pad or doing shorter laterals, and so even if the optimal laterals are only 12,000 feel long, that still requires a solid acreage position 5 miles long in a NW-SE direction with a usable pad location in the middle to provide the ideal drilling environment. Shell just doesn't have that in the area near the Plumber location, which will delay development there even given the apparently solid geology. 

I suspect it will be lower on their priority list than drilling more wells near their Stanley well in Osceola Township where they have a much broader acreage position. But more drilling near the Plumber and Sharretts locations will happen eventually.

Permalink Reply by Darrell Weaver on September 30, 2018 at 3:29am

GM Old Timer

i personally know Bill W n I thought he had said the other week the holdout had signed..?

Could u post a pdf plat area map for Plummer site n Sharretts’s site.

i would be directly SSE of Plummer site with 7000’ lateral n was fairly certain Bill said all owners were now signed

thanks

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