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The Trump Administration is moving towards less royalty rates on Federal land leases, less Bureau of Land Management discretion on Environmental Protection Act obstruction on the Application for Petroleum Drilling process, less coal and nuclear power generation decline, and less oil supply confidence in OPEC-Russia world price management.

This is the thrust of the signature world energy domination policy of Secretary Ryan Zinke for the last 16 months. It accounts for the action of OPEC-Russia 10 days ago. Saudi Arabia led OPEC to increase oil production to respond to President Donald Trump, but averted a price shock with gradualism. More output from OPEC offers increased revenue in the very short term.

Ryan Zinke

Ryan Zinke (Photo: Steve Marcus, AP)

It now faces an election to decide majority party control of Congress. Should the Democratic Party win at least in the House of Representatives, President Donald Trump will be set back on energy policy and its action realization. He will be forced to use executive power narrowly.  

The Democratic Party will prepare for 2020 and the foreclosure of Trump-Zinke on world energy domination through an American petroleum system and public land dispensation.  

What will the Democratic Party control of energy in Washington and Santa Fe look like?
Imported oil is consistent with a resumption of climate change energy policy which is less carbon in the economy and more renewables as the alternative.  

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Don't easily believe that the democrats will win the House or Senate in November.

I am a political junkie and have been since I was younger than most kids interested in politics. The voters have a choice this November and I do not believe they will choose to go backwards with the democrats.

The dagger is coming........3rd quarter GDP is going to be fantastic, near 5%. The country lost 10 years under boosh and obama, where we are now is so much better than where we were then I cannot believe it will choose to go back. 

If the voters do as I suspect the oil market will continue to be driven by increasing consumption driven by an expanding economy. OPEC will try to keep prices below $80 but may not be able to. Domestic producers will not discipline themselves to avoid over production but if economic growth is as strong as is expected it may not matter.

Either way short term oil prices will be better and we could see $80 per barrel within a year, maybe even this summer. I like a floor value of $65 per barrel but believe that it will rise to $70 or slightly higher later this summer.

If the GOP (I am absolutely not a republican) holds the House as I suspect (the Senate is not in play) I believe the economy will continue to improve through 2019 and oil will benefit accordingly. Will OPEC be able to manipulate the price downward to deter more and more American oil, maybe, but I kind of doubt it. A solid, sustainable period of economic growth will most likely drive growth to a rate that takes the oil market beyond the reach of OPEC will keep prices higher through this year and next.

Oil independence is much better than oil dependency brought courtesy of the wishful thinking of men dreaming about windmills and such powering an ever expanding economy.


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