Selling Mineral Rights

Hi, has anyone been approached with offers to buy your mineral rights?  We just had a very lucritive offer from a company ..... $5,000 per acre.    Just wondered if any other have had such offers. 

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Permalink Reply by Jeffrey Beunier on June 30, 2018 at 5:13am
Saying Mineral rights are not a financial asset is rather naive. Every asset and liability you own comprises your net worth - whether it the asset is a stock, bond, your house, pension, or mineral rights - they all have different risk profiles, different liquidity, different values, and different cash flows but all different assets. You may view one as being special, as is human nature, but to imply viewing them as not being an asset is simplistic, naive and sill
Permalink Reply by Jeffrey Beunier on June 30, 2018 at 6:00am
Oh and to credibility, m not really worried about you questioning mine as I base all my analysis up on data and facts. I also don’t try to take a single headlines and apply it to a broad area of utilize genarlizations that are not based on facts. $10,000 per acre bonus? Where have you seen a bonus that high in recent years? Nowhere because they don’t exist.

As for what I pay for minerals, I guess I have to spell it out to you. Purchase prices for every mineral asset vary on a multitude of factors - please see prior post relating a handful of those factors. There is no single price.

As an example:

For an asset that has:
1. A high royalty rate like 20%,
2: Proper ‘gross’ lease language,
3. With the horizontal drilled into zone 100% of the time,
4. With a frac that utilized 150’ stages and over 2000#’s of propannt,
5. In a unit with 35-40’ of lateral per acre,
6. Not directly offset by existing producing wells or with the nearest offsets 1000’+ away,
7. With Located in eastern Richland township, or close to the rivier in bemont county,
8. With a tie into line date of October or November to capture winter pricing
9. With a solid operator who’s focused on the Utica,
10. And a closing date that’s 1-2 months after the tie in date

You would probably expect a price north of $15-$18,000+ per acre. That is if you want to sell and cash out.

The price assumes a forward Henry hub price curve adjust for basin differentials, the average net price over the life of the well will be in the $2.10 - $2.25/mcf assuming no pipeline outages, additional Canadian supplies, a cold winter, no freeze offs, continued power plant switch over (coal to gas), amongst other factors driving increased demand and hopefully a rationalizing of incremental supply (which is currently growing too fast and swamping demand)

Once completed then you need to focus on the choke management program (length of flat production), initial decline, etc. - wells appear to have a hyperbolic decline post flat, with a .7 to 1B factor.

This would result in a yield to the investor Of around 10-15% (hopefully).

The majority of the cash flows impacting the yield will occur in the first 12 months. If the assumptions for that critical period wrong the yields can swing wildly. The largest components of the risk on such a hypothetical well (a well where the development timing, unit size, etc are eliminated) would be timing to production and net price

All the variables I mention add risk and returns (IRR’s) can as easily drop to 0.

Contrast that to acreage that is leases but not permitted or utilized, with no certainty on timing. Any buyer or mineral owner will take into consideration the additional risk factors that uncertainty brings. Accordingly a buyer will pay a significantly lower price due to the additional risk.

What that price is, depends on a range of variables but will ultimately result in something below $15,000. Furthermore, chances are, that any high ‘gross’ royalty, won’t be renewed and will be left to expire and new offers will be ‘gross at the mouth of the well’ or ‘market enhancement’ which are both net leases.

The ‘guarantee’ of a renewal lease bonus or getting released at a high bonus simply doesn’t exist. If you have been observing the Ohio River Valley, you will know that EQT, Ascent, Gulfport, CNX, SWN, Range, etc have now largely consolidated the basin.

This results in less competition as operators typically do not want to have acreage in another operators area of control. Therefore lease bonuses have dropped materially. As an example, prior to being acquired, Rice was trying to get away from paid in full bonus structure (where you get the first 5 years upfront) and trying to sign leases that required annual payments. This dramatically impacts the potential cash flows as five $1000 per year payments are with a lot less today than a single $5000 lump sum.
Permalink Reply by David Allen Lilly on July 1, 2018 at 3:02am

Yet you still ignore the two most pertinent aspects of selling your minerals:

1, If a buyer is willing to buy they KNOW that the minerals are worth buying because of a future payout. In this day I doubt mistakes are made like they might have been occasionally in 2013. NOBODY is buying a worthless lease for minerals that are never going to be developed.

2. Any offer is a small portion of what an owner would receive over the lifetime of the lease, period. 

Please be so kind as to inform us of the percentage of the payout you offer potential sellers, first pass, negotiating and final.

I will guarantee that you will do as you have already twice done, which is dumb a lot of information that in know way addresses that most important issue.

This is why you have no credibility, at least with me. A mineral buyer advising to sell ??? What could go wrong for the seller ???

Pricing and lease terms offered today to renewals and offers, as well as non-renewals, is far more relative to the prices of the commodity itself.

When oil was near $100 a barrel you got a much better lease offer than you do now, and the producers were flush with capital supplied by folks eager to get in on the game.

Pen whatever you wish, question my mineral ownership, whatever, I don't care. But every time I see another one of these threads open up on this site (of course there would never be a buyer trying to get some free advertisement or business using these threads) I will be right here offering an opposing point of view.

Permalink Reply by Jeffrey Beunier on July 1, 2018 at 2:31pm

Um...whatever...you're such a silly boy....you should take that act on the road, I'm sure you could find a venue that looks for humor such as yours,

But hey - we both agree on something, neither of us apparently care what the other thinks of them...Way to go, I knew you would eventually come around...

I mean, do you really think I care whether you feel I am credible,  If you had any valid insights demonstrated a basic working knowledge of what you were talking about, then maybe I would feel bad that we couldn't have an effective discussion and maybe, just maybe I would actually care.  I guess after you get done high fiv-ing yourself, you can pin the captain obvious award onto your chest....that's pretty fun man..glad to see you have a sense of humor...

As for doubling down, you seem to constantly do that, but you do it with ill research, fact lacking, misguided statements.  I guess I could just respond to every post that offers a different opinion than me with pointless meaningless statements like you do ....but I prefer to actually back up what I say up with facts, and do silly things like providing links to supporting data...Hmm..try it sometime,  it's really not that hard to do...come on,,,for once, actually back your statements up.

PLEASE DAVID PLEASE OFFER SOMETHING TO BACK UP YOUR STATEMENTS....I will even help you with data if you need it.....

Please inform us David, where did you base your 15 cents on the dollar number from?  Or is that 50 cents on the dollar now?  or 80...or....well whatever number you are planning to incorporate into your statements now, can you please tell us how you got there? What are your blanket statements based on?

God bless you David, I'm sure you mean well...maybe you shoudl try being less abrasive, attack people less, and open your ears and mind....it would be liberating.

God Bless 'Merica AND A BIG HAPPY 4th of July everyone! 

This country gives everyone the right to speak, whether they are making stuff up or not.  But no matter what, we are certainly blessed to live in a country where we have the issue to debate whether selling some or all of your mineral rights is the best approach for each individual's situation.  In most countries, the government owns the minerals, and well while we may have to tolerate such things as severance taxes (the government's attempt to take something that's not there's via taxation), we at least have the ability to make decisions as to what to do with the valuable investment asset known as "mineral rights".  We are blessed with freedom of information, and many resources that we can utilize to gain an understanding of the facts (I guess if we so chose to actually consider facts) 

May you profit from yours as you chose and as best you can for your circumstances.    

Permalink Reply by Jeffrey Beunier on July 1, 2018 at 2:31pm

Oh BTW, once again you made a statement that's not really supported by any facts...

If you would've researched gas prices (here's a hint GOOGLE...G O O G L E...), they aren't that materially different from where they were in '12 or '13...

So what was that about lease bonus reflecting commodity prices... See chart below and links below so you can go to the EIA website and see for yourself....Crazy isn't, I mean how many items can someone be wrong and still stay so stubbornly oblivious that their position is based on nothing but conjecture.    

Here's the data from the EIA:

NG_PRI_FUT_S1_M.xls  

HERE's link for the graphs from the EIA website:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_fut_s1_m.htm

you can overlap the last 5 years at the following link

Top of Form

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm

Bottom of Form

Permalink Reply by Jeffrey Beunier on July 1, 2018 at 2:31pm
Permalink Reply by Mike Sero on July 2, 2018 at 6:28am

David, brings up good points.I don't think we will see $100 a barrel oil for a long time. Gas, is uggh. The companies spent all their cash leasing up lot of bad acres in areas. Now they have adjusted. They know the good areas and bad. Now just looking for the next GREAT area!! They can get a good well anywhere.

I have no problem letting others know I am a Landman/Broker who is not associated with an actual drilling company etc.... I've been in the industry 15+ years, seen the good, bad and ugly. I've helped land owners negotiate leases for companies that I have done work for in the past. I watched the prices in 2007 go from 10 dollars (norm at the time) an acre to what they are now.

Every state has different laws and I don't have enough time to debate the severance in PA/WV and Ohio!!

But, I will state this fact, because I do help one of the largest buyers in PA/OH/WV - they aren't looking for any immediate returns on many of the acres they buy. They have actually planned on most of the acres they have bought not to make money for almost 10 years. 

And if this seems crazy, well most GOOD mineral buying companies are investing in the long term not the short term.  I actually tell many of the people wanting to sell, keep few acres. Get what you need, pay off your current debt, make life easier.

Oh, and I do represent many mineral owners and how I'm paid is by a percentage by the buyers. So the higher dollar I get for the seller the more I'm paid.

Permalink Reply by David Allen Lilly on June 30, 2018 at 4:16am

I just opened two letters to us from a mineral buyer.

We have two parcels in Millwood township Guernsey county Ohio totaling 30.3 acres. For the mineral rights to all acreage the offer is $424,662.

Key to them is our royalty percentage of 20% gross.

I wonder what would happen were I to accept this offer, 12.5 acres have been in production for over two years now, seems strange they would offer so much for that acreage, same as the acreage in the Mercury units lately drilled, fracked and maybe in production.

That is a lot of money. It should tell you something about the worth of the lifetime of the lease. I doubt they threw out this offer on a whim. If the offer is for 50 cents on the dollar of the lifetime of the lease, which I doubt, it makes the decision easier.

Permalink Reply by David Allen Lilly on July 1, 2018 at 3:09am

Bullfex,

I never said you attacked me, how silly that you would even write that. 

And, you state you have reasons for not using your real name, I cannot imagine why we would assure ourselves of an honest conversation where one party refuses to even acknowledge who he truly is.

You also didn't address my questions about a New York resident injecting himself into this forum and this discussion. The state of New York does not allow fracking.

Why the interest in any of this to the point where you are participating in these discussion threads ?

I asked if you are a mineral buyer, you didn't respond. Are you ? Is your account and your story all an act of some sort ?

I don't think these are unfair questions to ask of someone giving advice on important issues like these.

Permalink Reply by David Allen Lilly on July 2, 2018 at 1:18am

Were I to bother producing any information in response to the challenge issued it would be flatly rejected for obvious reasons. 

Mr. Beunier must think this debate is for him, it is not.

This debate is for folks who may be considering doing something to the advantage of the guy with the most to win in the transaction, the buyer.

 

Before you sell, ask your buyer what is the value of your lease and what percentage of that value are they offering you. If you sell anyhow, no hard feelings. Unlike these buyers who profit from doing what they are advocating you do I do not profit either way.

To try to pretend that they are a dispassionate bystander whose advice is anything other than a sales pitch blessing you with advice that is in your best interests is laughable.

Again, simply ask them what value they have attached to your lease BEFORE you sell. 

Another very astute tip is to engage in the process only electronically where there is a hard record of everything said, who said it and when it was said. 

Permalink Reply by Bullfrex on July 2, 2018 at 5:52am

Good insight Old Timer,

I will get in trouble here, no doubt, but this could be another option for Mr. Holliday; sell some surface to enhance your life, but retain ALL the OGM rights. 

Permalink Reply by Mike Sero on July 2, 2018 at 7:19am

Actually started in early 1900's with coal severances. And as we both know WV, back in the day was rich with backdoor deals and screwing the little guy who was happy to just get a years salary on a deal.  It was corruption at it's finest. Now, I think/know there is lot more openness and education that it happens a lot less then it did.

Like I've told many a mineral seller, why sell all of it? Keep an interest.

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