Comment

Comment by gary smith on February 7, 2013 at 10:23am

deanna, i'm the operator that dug the rock out of your dads pit to fix rt 89 a couple years ago, hope you and he are doing okay. if you go to the second page here you will find a link to halcon swiss posted by berk. there is a graph there showing the wet gas etc. hydetown is in the wet gas. at some point you guys will get it. also the rock in your pit will be sought after for well roads. and cabot also owns 50% of the utica with range. when range boughtcabots holdings in 97 cabot retained that percentage.

Comment by Brad on February 7, 2013 at 4:21am

Article on seekingalpha specifying the various windows in Eagle Ford.  Doesn't mean Utica is the same, but might give some insight:

"The Eagle Ford has large swings in content of oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. The Eagle Ford is oil dominant in the west. To the east the oil production declines slightly and natural gas liquids production increases. The eastern most section becomes a play on dry gas. These areas are divided into "windows". Different companies use different names for these windows, and in some cases increase the number of windows to four. The western section is oil dominant:

• 78% Oil
• 11% Natural Gas Liquids
• 11% Dry Gas

The middle section, which is referred to as the volatile oil/condensate window has:

• 45% Oil
• 25% Natural Gas Liquids
• 30% Dry Gas

The eastern window is referred to as the dry gas window and the majority of production comes from this resource. Given the large percentage of gas, this window is not being as aggresively developed, when compared to the other liquids heavy windows."

Comment by Bob Jenness on February 7, 2013 at 1:55am

Sam, Regarding "don't try to be an expert"...

When and if any of us get a "real" lease offer, what we've learned while waiting for it will be all we have to guide the difficult decision of "sell or wait for a better offer". Or are you going to recommend that we take the first offer that comes along.  Even if an offer comes recommended by credentialed experts, I certainly want to know enough to be able to judge the offer and the experts' credibility.  The only certainty in a complex business like this is that 50% of the players/offers are below average, so there's at least a 50% probability that a prudent leaser should reject the first offer.  

This problem is further complicated by the proximity of most Crawford property to the "edge" of the interesting geology, wherever it actually is.  If we do some statistical math (that's the stuff that the GOP didn't do before the election, causing great surprise and consternation) on the well sites, we could infer that the massive current drilling defines the geologists view of the real fairway, and that nearer the edges, we may have to wait for higher prices and/or deployment of more drilling capacity to make a business case for leasing near the edges.  Has anyone seen statistical analysis of current permitted wells vs HBP/new lease status?  It appears to me that RRC, etc. are behaving as if the business case for a new well "near the edges" gets the HBP boost, and they may be able to drill for years on HBP and existing leases nearer the fairway center.

Comment by Samuel J. Orr on February 6, 2013 at 6:11pm

Berk: You are doing good work. In Halcon's case it's apparent they want to get some wells drilled quickly; prove the acreage, and then liquidate the company by selling to a much larger entity. Floyd Wilson, himself, has repeated this. If you read the Petrohawk story, this is the second chapter. it is helpful to his strategy to drill quickly, and publish results quickly. It is true that since Mr. Wilson wants to get the best price that he can for the company, he may try some seller's puff. Nevertheless he needs some representative wells with production figures, and the sooner the better. Time is money. Please keep up the good work. I find your posts very helpful. As for Halcon, I wish them success especially since their success may lead them or some other player to offer an acceptable lease for my own property. I hope for the same success for others.

Comment by Berk on February 6, 2013 at 5:38pm

I don't believe there has been one person on this site that has jump up and said I'm an expert Sam.

I would say we are ALL only trying to just understand whats going on around us, with any sliver of information we can look at.    

Comment by sldouglass on February 6, 2013 at 5:29pm

It would be nice to have lots of reliable information beyond what is published on the Internet. BUT where can you get current information - accurate information - complete information????
The producers who are expending a ton of money drilling and exploring have no reason to share what they find. To the contrary, The producers do not even share with other producers. If any info leaks out, it is because they want you to have it. It is fun to learn what you can, but do not rely on it. It is not likely to be the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
It is enough for you to know that you have something the producers want when they send a landman knocking on your door. Do not try or pretend to be an expert.

Comment by jim hall on February 6, 2013 at 5:04pm

David, I'll probably talk to my buddy this weekend...maybe he'll have some details

Comment by gary smith on February 6, 2013 at 4:51pm

what is volatile oil? gasoline?

Comment by RJS on February 6, 2013 at 4:30pm

Just drove by the Lippert well and the flare is out.  They must have shut it down some time today.

Comment by markkot on February 6, 2013 at 3:13pm

Berk,

I sure hope Halcon's geologists and mappers are on their game... That 'northern sweet spot' puts my property right in the middle of the 'volatile oil' fairway.  As far as the Point Pleasant boundary, anybody have any ideas how close they'd drill to it or if they'd even venture North of the 'line'?  Sure'd be nice to know if that's the perceived edge of the potential drilling area, or the line illustrating the PP Interval is believed to cease at that point.

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