***News Alert: 2H2014 Production Data is Out for PA***

The highly anticipated 2H2014 production reports are out.

1.  For the 3 Watkins Utica Wells, in not a surprise move by Shell, they reported only 5, 7, and 9 days of production for these wells.  Which does not give us much data to put these wells in context.  

WATKINS 820 25H 820-25H 9/16/2013 61,456.69 7
WATKINS 820 23H 820-23H 2/5/2014 82,002.90 9
WATKINS 820 21H 820-21H 2/5/2014 44,038.84 5

2.  For the Synnestvedt Utica Well, we do have a positive surprise:  565,874 mcf in only 58 days of production.  To put this in context, the Gee well in 1H2014 reported 593,544 mcf for 124 days of production, and Shell was very pleased with that report.  So, more gas in less time for a well on the NYS border, well north of the Point Pleasant Line.  

SYNNESTVEDT 878 22H 878 22H 12/10/2013 565,874.96 58

3.  Neal well production down 50%: 1H2014 was 1,800,000 mcf compared to 2H2014 of 930,678 mcf.

Brings up the question, is the Neal on a choke?  Please let us know if you have knowledge either way, if in fact there is No choke, or if there Is a choke?  

NEAL D 815 1V 815-1V 5/13/2013 930,678.22 130

4.  Gee Utica production 347,784 mcf, down 41% from 1H2014.  1H2014 was 124 days, 2H14 was 139 days for the bean counters out there.

GEE C 832 2V 832 2V 6/20/2012 347,784.95 139

This is just a quick snapshot on the data.  If you have clarifying FACTS or information on chokes, please share with the group to put these reports in proper context.

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by mlb on February 17, 2015 at 6:38am

Quick question.  I can't seem to get county specific data nor operator data as the DEP website prompts me for.  I can look at all statewide data and then look at the counties I want to.  Is this normal for the site or am would it seem I am having a problem with my computer etc?

Tks!

Permalink Reply by David Perotto on February 17, 2015 at 3:34pm
MLB,
If you are using Internet Explorer or Google Chrome, try using Firefox. It works the best with the PA site
Dave
Permalink Reply by Tim on February 17, 2015 at 9:23am
Permalink Reply by Brian Day on February 17, 2015 at 4:29pm

To my knowledge, no gas at all has been shipped down the new pipeline that runs from somewhere up Catlin Hollow down through Middlebury and up to Chatham township.  Perhaps when this line is operational and some of these wells are connected the production figures will change.  for instance, the Gee well is plumbed into an old, existing line of small capacity.  The new pipeline runs right beside it.

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on February 18, 2015 at 1:15am
It's the decline in the Neal and Gee production that's the most worrying. The Gee well proved the area has gas in the Utica but suggests it's not always a profitable amount.
Permalink Reply by Tim on February 18, 2015 at 2:36am

As Brian stated above, the Gee well could potentially produce A LOT more gas, as it gets connected to a larger commercial pipeline, vs the old small capacity line its currently hooked up to now.  

Clearly, decline rates are always a concern with the wells, however, WITHOUT knowing the FACTS on the chokes, the data, by itself, is neither negative or positive, as we simple do not have enough information.  To 'suggest' that these wells are not 'profitable' is without merit.  The exception in the current report being the Synnestvedt, which we already factually know is being restricted, yet still produced a healthy 565,000 mcf in 58 days, on the NYS border.

Factually speaking, the Neal well produced 130 days in the 2nd half of 2014, so it was clearly being regulated, as there was 184 possible production days.  Could it be that the Neal and Watkins are piped into the same commercial line and adjustments were made to accept gas from the 3 Watkins wells, which limited the capacity from the Neal.

As I clearly stated in my preview, no one should be surprised by either mixed or just merely 'ok' results.  The Synnestvedt clearly was a positive surprise, considering location on the NYS border and the current restrictive pipes it is connected to.  Shell has recorded over 250 documents since Jan 1st, 2015, primarily leases but also including right of ways, easements and the such.  CLEARLY, their actions, once again, state LOUD and CLEAR, that they are here to stay, and develop, and expand the Northern Utica.

If there is currently any major concern, it is the takeaway capacity in the region.  That, front and center, remains the #1 issue in North East and North Central PA.  

Permalink Reply by paleface on February 18, 2015 at 2:47am

 Jack well production is down across the state what wells are you comparing these Utica wells to.( Supply and demand.)

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on February 18, 2015 at 3:34am
You guys don't get it - the Gee well made twice as much gas first half of 2014, and the pipeline didn't shrink. And production in PA has gone up, not down. All wells decline, and that decline curve is just as important to the economics as the IP, the well cost and the price of gas. I know the latest results were a disappointment to everyone, but we have to accept the facts. The play still has potential, but it's no sure thing. Shell wants it to work, and will do their best to make that happen. But arguing with me (and making up excuses) won't improve their odds of success. We just need to wait and see what they can accomplish. I'm still optimistic for the long term.
Permalink Reply by paleface on February 18, 2015 at 3:45am

 Jack most shale wells drop off as much or more than 50% after the first year that's why they have to keep drilling to keep the currant production to where they need it.

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on February 18, 2015 at 4:01am
These wells appear to be dropping more quickly than average, hence my concerns. Rapid declines have killed many promising plays, and I'm hoping the Utica in our area won't fall into that category. Just look at the Gee's decline and remember it still has less than 365 days of reported production. Then note how the Neal production is taking a similar course. It may be coincidence, but until we know more it's a clearly a cause for caution. The Marcellus has a pretty favorable decline curve in the better areas, but there's no reason to assume the Utica will do the same until we see data that confirms it. I'm staying optimistic, however, as Shell has great engineers and if a problem can be solved they're the ones who can do it.
Permalink Reply by Tim on February 18, 2015 at 5:22am

Back to the Facts:  Neal well 2.7BCF in 264 days of production: 10.227mmcf/day Average.

Unknown level of choke, if any. 

Gee well had 43 days of production 2H2013, 263 days of production calendar year 2014.  Total production to date: 1.29BCF, 4.2mmfc/day average.

unknown level of choke, if any. 

Synnestvedt 58 days of production: 565,000 mcf or 9.7mmcf/day, on restrictive pipe, which is acting as a choke, what degree of choke remains unknown. 

Contrary to your belief, I am not 'arguing' with you, just merely putting your 'subjective' responses in context with the facts.  

These are pads with 1 Utica well currently producing.  The Watkins is the 1st Utica pad in Tioga with 3 active Utica wells.  There is ZERO cause for concern on the well production across NW Tioga.  The primary cause of concern IS AND REMAINS takeaway capacity AND the negative differential to the spot price.  The region NEEDS pipeline, 1-3 years away; and the region NEEDS LNG exports, 2-4 years away.

Jack, in your opinion, do pipeline terms need to change to get more pipes in the ground faster, ie higher rental rates paid; or are current contracts fair to all parties?  How would you rec surface owners and midstream companies found common ground to that current conundrum?  

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on February 18, 2015 at 7:08am
You repeat a few "facts" each time you post, then go on to say some of the dumbest things. None of which are facts in any regard. I'm not sure why you feel the need to do this over and over.

Nobody will build pipelines into an area beyond their own immediate market needs until the economics of that area are proven. Northwestern Tioga County isn't there yet, so we just have to be patient.

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