Tioga County, PA Monthly Production Figures.........New Sheriff in Town

Shughar Pad over takes the Watkins Pad, 34.7 vs 31.4.

Clark is a very respectable 23.4 for Tioga county, also 3 wells.

Synnestvedt, steady-Eddie @ 10.3, have to wonder what she does wide open?

Anything else interesting in the monthly report?

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Permalink Reply by paleface on June 18, 2015 at 12:29am

They haven't drilled a bad one yet in the TBR/Utica Shell is getting really good at this.Each new well they drill is a new record.The people drilled at the end of this play will have the better wells.

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on June 18, 2015 at 2:46am

As you probably expected, my take on the report (as far as the Utica is concerned) wasn't so favorable. Despite being much shallower and less expensive to produce, the Shughart and Clark pads (all Marcellus production) dominated most of the Utica wells we've been following. (If you can drill Marcellus wells that good, why spend the extra money to go after the Utica?) Also, it's worth noting the declines we're seeing on the Utica wells currently in production are much steeper than what you would expect. This doesn't prove anything on its own as we don't know how Shell is producing these or what their pipeline capacity is, but it's certainly not good news on its own.

The Synnestvedt well is promising, but the daily average wasn't steady as Tim claimed. March production was 10.5 per day, but April only 8.5/day - a decline of close to 20% in just a single month. Not sure why he would post a claim like this when the numbers are out there for everyone to see. Sure I'm optimistic about the play, but I still think you need to be realistic about the facts, because they aren't something we can argue.

And what about the Gee well? Down roughly 85% from the initial results. That well is only a year old. Again, this doesn't prove the play won't be profitable in the end, but it's not something I'd get excited about. There certainly wasn't much to get enthusiastic about in the April production numbers if your focus is on the Utica.

Permalink Reply by paleface on June 18, 2015 at 10:48am

 (Watkins,25H-7.4 ) ( Watkins,21H-12.7 )  (Watkins,23H-5.4 )  (Sharretts,23H-7.0 ) ( Synnestvest,22h-8.4 )

Mike MurphyPermalink Reply by Mike Murphy on June 19, 2015 at 5:15am

as time goes by they will find new and better completion methods  and there is also the ability to refrack wells using newer technology also remember gas prices are low so these wells are probable chocked back to slow production til prices rebound

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on June 19, 2015 at 8:04am

Remember, if everyone was choking their wells back, prices wouldn't be low!  ;)

Also, refracking is only possible if the zone in question wasn't fracked the first time around. Most operators don't leave much behind these days. Once a zone is fracked, it's done. Like shattering a glass - you can't put it back together and do it again.

Permalink Reply by paleface on June 21, 2015 at 1:59am

 Jack wouldn't it make sense to choke back the wells that you don't have a profitable market to sell to ?

Permalink Reply by Gringo on June 21, 2015 at 9:58am

It would make sense, but that has never been Shells Philosophy and that is straight  from a long time Shell employee. Drill though the highs, drill though the lows.

Permalink Reply by Jack Young on June 21, 2015 at 11:06am

Gringo is right - just like farmers plant every year through the highs and lows, so Shell tends to produce what they have regardless of the price. Trying to outguess the market seems easy, but what if Shell had choked their wells back 4 or 5 years ago when prices started to slide? They'd feel pretty stupid by now, and that's why they stick to drilling and producing rather than trying to outguess the markets.

If a company really could outguess the natural gas markets, they wouldn't need to drill a single well - they could make a fortune trading forward contracts and options. But that's really hard to do.

Permalink Reply by David on June 21, 2015 at 11:46pm
Way too many unknowns for anyone on this forum to predict results. The only people that really know are the operators in this case Shell. If you are lucky enough to be involved in a production unit good for you enjoy it!
Permalink Reply by Tom L A. on June 22, 2015 at 10:18am
Jack,
Shell is very much involved in trading (it's actually worked quite well during this depressed nat gas environment).

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