Calculating future royalties

does anyone know how to figure out royalties? i went on the sites that have the royalty calculators but im not sure if they are accurate or not.

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Permalink Reply by David Allen Lilly on December 6, 2017 at 6:07am

Yes, there are many times where the buyer is a shadow man for the producers who stand to save themselves substantial amounts of money by buying your mineral rights.

I have said this over and over and I will say it again here and now:

Your minerals are yours to do with as you wish, it doesn't affect me one way or the other, I don't gain or lose one iota no matter what you do and there are no hard feelings from me over what you do with your minerals.

BUT,

It is almost never a good idea to sell them, period. No matter what you think is good about it you are giving away your money, period, and a lot of it. Your not going to get more than 25% of what the well pays out over the life of your lease and most times you'll be around 15% paid up front to you and the rest to the buyer.

I have really peeved some folks over this issue, but think about it for a minute. If you sold your minerals one year ago you sold at an oil price of around $30 a barrel, now the price is around $57 a barrel. Now I know we don't get those prices but our price us based off of the WTI price and if you sold back then you really got abused.

Permalink Reply by Dott on December 6, 2017 at 8:54am

David Allen Lilly,

Thank you for the reply.  I did send you a friends request.

Permalink Reply by Dott on December 7, 2017 at 10:33am

David,

I have not yet received the email showing that you accepting my friends request or that you gave me a friends request.  I double checked on my friends page and it shows that I did send you a friends request so it will not let me send you another one. I don't know what is going on or how to get around it. I checked my inbox and it does not show that I sent you an email or that I received one from you.  Maybe something is wrong with the system. We may have to get the website tech involved.  I was able to place a comment on the David Lily Page however. Can you respond there?

Permalink Reply by David Allen Lilly on December 7, 2017 at 1:44pm

Let me look into it 

Permalink Reply by Dott on December 6, 2017 at 9:01am

Ed,

Again your figure seems high to me. If the figure you quote is what a royalty owner should receive over the life of the well why have so many on this website over the years stated that they see only $100.00 to 250.00 an acre?  I know it depends on the well and the lease contract but still your figures are so different.  I also believe you said that you are getting your information from a company's presentation,  so you are just the messenger. But I think they are trying to sell a bridge.

Permalink Reply by Ed on December 6, 2017 at 4:21pm

Again, those numbers are based on Antero's company presentation stating on average it will get 19.8 Bcfe pet 9,000 ft lateral and assuming you're getting $3/Mcfe and a 20% royalty and the only deduction is Antero's projected transportation cost of $0.63/Mcfe.  I assumed a 700 ft well spacing as that is what I've seen and been told is the typical Utica well spacing.  Any changes in those assumptions change the net total dollars to a landowner.  Lastly, these numbers are ultimate recovery, not monthly royalty amounts.

You also need to understand every well is not the same, production can be intentionally choked backed for various reasons.  The unit may not be fully developed so the royalties you're hearing about could be based on just one of the 4 to 8 wells that will eventually be in the unit.  Given the step decline curves, you also need to know how long the well has been producing.  Lastly, Anteto has acreage in the Utica sweet spots, so the royalties you're talking about may be from wells outside the sweet spots.

Permalink Reply by bo boboski on December 6, 2017 at 10:29am

Really, after reading about everything on this site for 5/6 years, I've come to the conclusion,that as far as figuring royalties, one thing you know is: YOU NEVER KNOW!  There is no-one checking on the amount of oil & gas produced from each well. the totals are whatever the producer wants to turn in.No-one really knows just how much is REALLY come out of  the those wells.Some producers feel they can deduct post production costs on wells with leases that say "no post production costs " deducted. Some figure value at the wellhead,some at the point of sale. If you try to base some kind of budget on future royalties ; watch out!  They can shut in the wells at any time,for whatever reason.Best just to take what they send you and be happy! If you think you are being cheated; good luck fighting them in court. 

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