GAS Prices Are NOT Rising; DOLLAR is FALLING!
Discussions on this site are very interesting and it may be helpful to understand the nature of the "Dollar"; cause of the falling dollar and rising prices is printing money out of thin air (nothing to back it). So, not only are gas prices rising, so is everything else, at the same rate, and for the same reason. Please read this explanation from Forbes Magazine. Another issue to consider is that the Eastern oil rich countries are no longer using the U.S. Dollar, Iran being the latest. Hillary Clinton said 'we can't go to war with all of them". Iraq proposed the Oil Bourse first, we went to war, now Iran and Syria have followed. They NO LONGER WANT our 'valueless paper dollars'!
In light of ALL this, please review the monetary policies of ALL our Presidential candidates and the ONLY one talking about monetary policies, the printing of money, the bureaucracy and unending expansion of the government, endless invasions (wars), eliminating the Federal Reserve (who is NOT a part of the Federal Govt, but a private international bank) and Federal Reserve PRINTS THE MONEY!
That person in Congressman Ron Paul, whom the media ignores and maligns, gets the largest crowds, more donations from our Military than ALL the other candidates combined (including Obama), gives specifics on cutting the deficit by $1 Trillion dollars the first year, will downsize the govt., eliminate the Federal Reserve, promote private enterprise, and supports freedom and prosperity for all, NOT the elites and corporatists and international banksters!
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Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling
http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2012/02/22/gasoline-price...
Panic is in the air as gasoline prices move above $4.00 per gallon. Politicians and pundits are rounding up the usual suspects, looking for someone or something to blame for this latest outrage to middle class family budgets. In a rare display of bipartisanship, President Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner are both wringing their hands over the prospect of seeing their newly extended Social Security tax cut gobbled up by rising gasoline costs.
Unfortunately, the talking heads that are trying to explain the reasons for high oil prices are missing one tiny detail. Oil prices aren’t high right now. In fact, they are unusually low. Gasoline prices would have to rise by another $0.65 to $0.75 per gallon from where they are now just to be “normal”. And, because gasoline prices are low right now, it is very likely that they are going to go up more—perhaps a lot more.
What the politicians, analysts, and pundits are missing is that prices are ratios. Gasoline prices reflect crude oil prices, so let’s use West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to illustrate this crucial point.
As this is written, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) is trading at $105.88/bbl. All this means is that the market value of a barrel of WTI is 105.88 times the market value of “the dollar”. It is also true that WTI is trading at €79.95/bbl, ¥8,439.69/barrel, and £67.13/bbl. In all of these cases, the market value of WTI is the same. What is different in each case is the value of the monetary unit (euros, yen, and British pounds, respectively) being used to calculate the ratio that expresses the price.
In terms of judging whether the price of WTI is high or low, here is the price that truly matters: 0.0602 ounces of gold per barrel (which can be written as Au0.0602/bbl). What this number means is that, right now, a barrel of WTI has the same market value as 0.0602 ounces of gold.
During the 493 months since January 1, 1971, the price of WTI has averaged Au0.0732/bbl. It has been higher than that during 225 of those months and lower than that during 268 of those months. Plotted as a graph, the line representing the price of a barrel of oil in terms of gold has crossed the horizontal line representing the long-term average price (Au0.0732/bbl) 29 times.
At Au0.0602/bbl, today’s WTI price is only 82% of its average over the past 41+ years. Assuming that gold prices remained at today’s $1,759.30/oz, WTI prices would have to rise by about 22%, to $128.86/bbl, in order to reach their long-term average in terms of gold. As mentioned earlier, such an increase would drive up retail gasoline prices by somewhere between $0.65 and $0.75 per gallon.
At this point, we can be certain that, unless gold prices come down, gasoline prices are going to go up—by a lot. And, because the dollar is currently a floating, undefined, fiat currency, there is no inherent limit to how far the price of gold in dollars can rise, and therefore no ultimate ceiling on gasoline prices.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke uses a “core CPI index” that excludes food and energy to guide monetary policy. From Big Ben’s point of view, rising gasoline prices are not a problem. For the rest of us, they are becoming a big problem.
Over the centuries, gold has been “the golden constant”. Eventually, all prices equilibrate with gold. This is why gold represents the best available standard in terms of which to define the value of a monetary unit. Forty-one years ago, when the value of the dollar was defined in terms of gold at $35/oz, WTI was selling for $3.56/bbl.
Right now, the threat posed by rising gasoline prices is not just to family budgets. An even greater danger is that the government will use escalating oil prices as an excuse to do something stupid.
After President Nixon abrogated the Bretton Woods monetary arrangement in stages starting in September 1971, both gold prices and oil prices started to rise. The government responded by imposing wage-price controls. This made a bad situation much worse.
This time around, the stupid policies being considered to “deal with” rising gasoline prices include additional cuts in payroll taxes and higher taxes on energy producers.
During the 1970s, the toxic combination of a weak dollar, high tax rates, and onerous regulations introduced a new word into America’s economic vocabulary: stagflation. Reaganomics banished this word to the history books. Now, President Obama and Fed Chairman Bernanke are teaming up to give stagflation another try. It is not likely that Americans will like it any more this time around than they did 40 years ago
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Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Linda A on
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I've been in politics (in Lordstown, OH) and was also, for a short period of time, worked for a temp service (here in PA) and because of my background in govt., they used my experience in the govt sector in OH, here in PA, so saw it up close and personal.
In engineering dept, had three engineers and only one really worked (all the paperwork), and HE was still working towards getting his license! The others showed up at the office, with coffee and uncombed hair, at about 10:00 am and announced 'they were gong out to check on a project' and would never see them again!
City manager had a secy, and SHE had a secy to do the work! Cute young things running around in short skirts! And another secy/receptionist assisted as well, she was in the hall, directing people and 'other duties as assigned'.
Zoning dept. had too many employees as well, and I had NOTHING to do yet I was replacing someone who was on vacation! Same thing in the Water Dept. Talk about boring! Finally I told the temp agency I didn't want to go back there - just too boring and made me sick to see our tax dollars NOT at work! It is SO easy wasting/spending other people's money (taxpayers) and so much fun to control!
I see the same thing in schools, compared to when I was in school. Principles, assistant principles, second assistant principles, secretaries, assistant secretaries, additional office help, and on and on. I can understand this a bit more because of all the paperwork required to keep our kids 'dumbed down' from the NCLB (no child left behind) program and other fed govt programs!
They would pull the educationally challenged students out of the classes, and not 'test' them so they could meet the 'test' requirements for Fed money. When I was in school, the brighter kids helped actually assisted the teachers because they could help the others to understand subject at hand. Separating those kids was a big mistake! Having advanced classes, in addition to others was helpful but to completely segregate, across the board, did them all a disservice. It widened the educational divide AND kept those who could 'teach' from feeling that sense of accomplishment as well as keeping the students who had a harder time learning, from feeling a sense of accomplishment as well...
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@Dan, now that is the $60,000 question - where did the money go? Auditing and then eliminating the Federal Reserve would be the BEST first step! When the 'bailout' helped the banks, they didn't loan to people, then invested in Treasury Notes for a guaranteed return and with the blessings of the govt!
And when they forclosed on thousands of homes, no one even knew who the 'legal owner' was because those loans were bundled and sold over and over which left the homeowner vulnerable. Red about how they had 'recreated' (forged) documents to match or meet the needs of the banks - paid good money for people to sit and sign particular signatures and dates, over and over and were accepted as 'legal' because no one even though such a thing could or would be done!
These things are so BIG the common person cannot phantom all the dirty deeds pulled on people.
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Permalink Reply by Dan on -
Mark,
Do you really think any of the potential nominees would touch Ron Paul with a thirty foot pole. He isn't any where near their goals.
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they will have to include him if they want to win the nomination! His support keeps growing every day, especially amoung independents, and neither party can win w/o them.
It will, however, be a token but Dr. Paul's supporters will hold them to the deal...
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Permalink Reply by Sam Moore on
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I was watching one of the first republican debates and my wife came in and asked me why I was watching. I told her I wanted to know where these people stood on the issues. She said you're wasting your time the second guy in is going to win. (Mitt) cause he is the best looking and most of the public is to busy to care about what they stand for. She asked me who I liked and I told her Ron Paul and she laughed and said he doesn't have a chance he's funny looking. The sad truth is she is probably right our election process seams more like high school vote for prom king as the majority of the public is more interested in American Idol than American Politics. I look at Ron Paul's % of the vote as a good indicator of the number of Americans that are paying attention and every time that number goes up I smile. As long as we have 30% of population with government jobs, 41 million on food stamps, millions on never ending unemployment, welfare ect... some one running and saying they are going to shrink the government is going to have a hard time getting elected. I had a guy the other night ( about 40) say he hopes they keep extending his unemployment until he can retire.
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your wife forgot about his 'voice' which many comment on as well.
If you count the military, fire depts, police & road, school teachers, local, state and federal employees, militia and manning Military Industrial Complexes and bases around the world, the real percentage is actually 45%. That means 45% are NOT contributing to SSI because they have their OWN retirement system, which they NEVER touch!
Then, when you count the unemployed, that means no employer is 'donating' to the SSI as mandated. It's just a big domino effect Sam...
When I went to hear him speak, you could hear a pin drop in the college auditorium as people were paying attention (that was in 2007) and his message was fairly new and different than anything these people ever heard!
Today, the crowds are so HUGE, you'll hear thousands responding to everything he says and the electricity in the room/stadium or wherever - is intoxicating! Freedom IS Popular but we MUST get people to understand we have been led to BELIEVE we are free - those freedoms are gone! Try to let your child sell lemonade on your back street..
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Permalink Reply by Dan on
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Mark,
I agree if Ron Paul is not the nominee The actual nominee would be smart to keep him close and/or have in a cabinet or other position. I hope Ron Paul wins the nomination. I just don't think the others are that smart or want any thing to do with him. Back to gas prices, here is a pretty detailed collection of all the factors involved with all energy prices and more. http://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/. If you truely believe the president has any measurable effect on O&G production and pricing (short of putting us in a war or economic disaster), when you look at the numbers for production, after a overall 9 year US decline, production heads back up to a 5 year high under Obama in 2009 and 2010 with the EIA estimating a spike up in 2012. The EIA January report comes out tomorrow. Two in the field are out right liers on this fact so that leaves one with the least to say about US energy concerns and Ron Paul and the Incumbent. I'd say we have three possible choices on the table. Two won't make big changes..........jmo
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Thanks Dan - trust NO government sites as the data is manipulated. If production was up, and we know usage is down, then the prices should be closer to $1 - lol
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Permalink Reply by Dan on
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Mark & Linda A,
The numbers, at least in the short term, Can be manipulated and it takes a lot of time to sit down and sift thru them. Everything I have read recently says the offshore numbers were just readjusted up and actually increased under Obama also. The point is the President, short of going to war or other major action, really doesn't have much effect on overall US energy production and price. Non US production, the news and speculators do have a effect on price which is reflected in our gasoline price. The bigger concern is if Europe is going to tank this fall. Nothing could bring gas prices down any quicker than a worldwide collapse. Time to stock up some food.
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@Dan - stocking food is a much better investment than in the stock market, 401k or IRA - the tax 'savings' is quickly eaten up when they print more Monopoly money... AND, better than money in savings...
Anyway, there are many websites where you can learn how to do this - what keeps and what doesn't etc.
If buying canned goods, always mark them so you know which ones are older, and when storing, put the oldest in front.
I use the simple 1-2-3-4-5 method, the 1 being the oldest etc.
BTW, don't forget the toiletries, including toilet paper!
Baking soda has a wide variety of uses... And meds, especially if you have scrips, and just having extra Peroxide and Rubbing Alcohol for various uses as well... (and other Alcohol to make you forget you should do this..)
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Permalink Reply by 3uq96odaochmj on
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The American Dollar isn't worth too much considering it is not tied to Gold, and especially when the government prints it like there is no tomorrow. Anyone want some "Ben Franklins"? Hot off the press!
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