Surging Natural Gas Prices

How are the surging natural gas prices affecting drilling this year, and what about going into 2022?  Are the gas companies taking advantage of these higher prices?  What`s next?

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Permalink Reply by farmgas on October 11, 2022 at 9:35am

What will the 3rd quarter reports tell us about gas companies later this month?  Who is leading the pack and who is struggling?

Was higher hedges the name of the game?

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on October 11, 2022 at 8:43pm

CNX remains the hedge miester . Nearly fully hedged CNX hurts its chances of blasting off . Who has recently hedged ? We will find out shortly . I remain out of the sector as the Market is forward looking as N gas inventory will reach the 5 year year average by years end according to projections . This qtr report should be perky , Next qtr less impressive . 

Permalink Reply by farmgas on October 11, 2022 at 9:00pm

Could what appears as sluggishness on behalf of the Appalachian Basin gas companies be actually a realignment based upon new hedging activity?  Makes sense to me if it is.  Wait for new hedging to increase revenue for more spending....

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on October 12, 2022 at 9:16am

New spending would continue the cycle of boom and bust .. Recent production is already at record highs , the one thing not needed is a increase in CAPEX . If I was in charge of  hedgeing I would have been tempted to hedge as much as possible when it was $9 . Rinse and repeat , the cycle of Boom and Bust will continue . 

 Caution is urged .. A Real Estate Appraiser here in NY is down 60% in the number of Houses he is working on .. 7% Mortgage rates are a huge damper .  Headlines will continue to have a negative bent to them ....  

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on October 21, 2022 at 10:35am

Timberrrrrrrrr 

Permalink Reply by farmgas on October 26, 2022 at 9:44pm

How are Q3 reports looking?  Who has the most information? 

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on October 27, 2022 at 8:52am

They are reporting this week . Free Cash Flows are excellent , BUT prices are  in decline in this 4th qtr . So I suspect next qtr numbers will suffer . Any qtr where Free Cash Flow exceeds 20%  is a Home Run .. 

 Production is near all time highs , and Inventories are approaching 5 year averages , so the bias is towards lower gas prices , the Monkey Wrench is the Weather .. Cold is Bullish , Warm is Bearish .. 

My opinion in takeover targets , CNX , CRK , question is when [ could be years ] .. Oil is worth watching .. 

Permalink Reply by farmgas on October 27, 2022 at 9:06am

What do you think about the CNX Q3 report?  How does it compare to EQT & Range Resources reports in substance?  Who is CRK?  Will hedging prices be a negative?

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on October 27, 2022 at 11:24am

CNX has good free cash flow metrics , and their buybacks are adding up . CNX is a text book 20% free cash flow buy . Does the market appreciate these metrics ? Probably not to the extent they should . [ "Boring' ] is probably a term used for CNX . CRK is Haynesville ... Haynesville is 'hotter' than Marcellus , cheaper transportation is a big factor . CHK is also Haynesville and NE PA Marcellus ... 

 Why does RRC still have the same leadership that nearly destroyed RRC several years ago ? 

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on October 27, 2022 at 5:15pm

CNX taken to the woodshed today 

Permalink Reply by farmgas on October 27, 2022 at 5:33pm

What do you think caused a decline today?  What from their 3Q report caused a sell-off? 

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on October 28, 2022 at 8:02am

CNX had a issue on a Utica well , which could possibly affect future wells . Production flat , rising costs . If Utica issue persists , CNX will suffer .... 

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